Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. T.TRQ

The vote.

[Skip57]

Here goes the math:
200,000,000 shares outstanding.
Minority holds half, 100,000,000 (slightly less but close enough).
Pentwater + SailingStone ~ 16% of total float, 32,000,000 = 32% of minority.
Require simple majority of minority votes cast to vote "NO" to defeat offer.
Assume 90% participation other than Pentwater and SailingStone.
Therefore, 93,200,000 votes cast in total.
32,000,000 votes cast by Pentwater and SailingStone, 61,200,000 by remaining minority.
Pentwater and SailingStone = 34.3% of minority votes cast.
Require > 15,7%, 14,632,400 votes to defeat.
Equates to 23.9% of remaking minority to vote "NO".
Surely the offer will fail?

Someone please check my math.

Disclosure:  First bought the stock in 1999 where first operations were in Burma (Myanmar).
Then along came Friedland and Ivanhoe and the Mongolia discovery.  Did not participate in the ensuing 3 rights offerings, sold the rights, pocketed cash.  Over the following years have bought the dips.  Should have sold years ago at today's equivalent of $296.  Oh well.  Will vote "NO" and hold out for $75 (the infrastructure cost) plus future earnings.  Nothing less than $125 in my opinion is a "fair" offer.

If the offer is defeated, expect stock will suffer but will pick up as underground cash flow ramps up.

[Sooner]

Skip - looks correct from an interested 3rd party without a stake in this.  Seems like a slam dunk NO to me. You got 32% locked in a no and only need 1/4 of remaining to vote no...and that assumes 90% vote. Do you really think 90% will vote. Probably the most vocal yes and no will vote but probably a large % could take it or leave it realizing long term value might be to vote no but short

[Skip57]

I was generous with the 90% participation assumption.  Anything less lowers the hurdle for the "NO" side to reject the proposal. We will see shortly.