So much attentionhas been spent on Econiche by BNC and posters on this board. We go back and forth speculating, what it takes and when it will be licensed in the U.S. What a big money maker it will be. How fantastic the new vaccine plant is.
Let me ask these questions:
1. It has received full unrestricted licensing approval in Canada since 2008. Has it made any sale in Canada?
2. If it can't even make any reasonable impact in sales in its own country, what makes BNC think it will do better in the U.S. where it has its own locally produced competitor?
3. Without government mandate, what is the chance that cattle producers would voluntarily incur the additional cost and trouble of multiple vaccination to adapt the use of Econiche?
4. What is the likelihood of the Canadian government would mandate the vaccine knowing that there might be negative impact on the pricing competitiveness of the Canadian meat export and possibly the rejection of the meat due to other country's lack of trust of the vaccines. It will take a lot of education and political wrangling to convince the governments involved. How long will it take? Can BNC wait that long?
5. Short of a government mandate, where is the increased demand anticipated by the management to warrant such an expensive expansion of the vaccine facility?
The way BNC is spending the money and management focus on Econiche, I sure hope they have some sort of backroom agreement with the government for a mandate coming soon.
Scientifically, medically and in principle, Econiche is a great product. it fits BNC's commitment to animal health and its responsibility to the society. A big congratulation. Deserving a nice pat on the back.
But economically, I hope the management has not been blinded by its self-congratulation of such a do-gooder achievement and get so over-excited that it jump the gun way too soon in its anticipation and spending on this product.