RE: RE: RE: My interpretation from T&C's report...
That would be a 35% dfs on BCG refractory papillary tumours..... which are the majority (70%) of the bladder cancers... sounds pretty damn promising to me
And that's for BCG refractory, the golden standard which works well.(if you can tolerate it: 35% drop out before the minimum 6 doses and up to 80% before the complete FDA recommended schedule)
So let's take a number somewhere in the middle, say 50% who are refractory are candidates for Urocidin. You crunch the numbers and just for the USA you have 80K of which 75% are NMI(non muscle invasive) x 50%=30K /year at a conservative 20K cost.
= 600 million
25% for Bioniche is a close enough figure at 150m and the valuation is at $3???
Anybody care to guess what that DFS % would be for first line treatment? Could the Phase II results be far off?
Then there's this pesky little animal division just waiting to get the orders once the plant is up for Econiche. If that kicked in at half the plant capacity, 40mX50%=2omill x $3 profit per dose = 60 Mill This alone would account for more than the $3 share price as just 10x earnings would put the SP at $6
Then there's Phase 3b, Urocidin vs Mitomycin, the gold standard in Europe. Some have asked why go up against Mitomycin? It's the gold standard in Europe. Somebody else can crunch Europe numbers and add it in.
The only thing left to ask?
What could go wrong.