What is a skipped Phase 3 Trial worth to the stock price?So we were trading at 16 cents when we expected to have to pay for another Phase 3 clinical trial. Then we awoke last Friday to learn we didn't have to pay. We could go straight to asking for approval. The stock went up 21 cents since Friday to our 37 cent close today. That is a $29m of increase to our market cap.
But clinical trials cost at least $100m to run. So shouldn't our market cap go up at least another $71m? That is an additional 50 cents per share. That would put us at $0.87 to fully reflect the value of Friday's news release. This does not include the value of having a marketing decision from the FDA 2-3 years earlier than we expected.
So I'm forecasting 86 cents by end of this week.