TRANSITION THERAPEUTICS INC. T.TTH

RE: Heres the real .......Irish Analyst Report

[deninsask]

If anyone cares to have a look at Elans Value Assessment.........Here is all the wording. Equates to $30.65/share increase in Value for Transition over the next 12 months ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NCB Elan $24.89 BUY Tysabri’s Approval For Crohn’s Disease; Label Revised For Liver Injury •----- The FDA has approved the sBLA of Tysabri as a 3rd line treatment for Crohn’s Disease (CD) in the US. Approval in CD as a 3rd line treatment is as good as could have been anticipated following the recommendations of the FDA advisory committee meeting in Q3 2007. Additionally, it would appear that the Tysabri label has been revised for the reported post marketing incidences of liver injury. This revision to Tysabri’s label is not expected to make a material difference to its competitive positioning. •----- The key points of the approval are that (i) Tysabri be available for moderate to severe CD patients that have failed conventional CD treatments (e.g. steroids) and TNF-alpha inhibitors (e.g. Remicade, Humira); (ii) Tysabri is approved for inducing and maintaining clinical response and remission in CD patients; (iii) Tysabri be available under an approved CD specific risk management plan (including the TOUCH Prescribing Program) and (iv) approval is accompanied by “robust labelling and safety warnings”. •----- It would appear that Tysabri’s label has been revised and includes a safety warning related to the liver injury reported in patients in the post marketing setting. The liver injury side effect was disclosed ahead of the advisory committee meeting in Q3 2007. We would not expect this side effect to make a material difference either to MS patients switching from an interferon where liver injury issues are an existing side effect or to CD patients that have failed anti-TNF inhibitors, products that already carry significant adverse event warnings. •----- A sales and marketing infrastructure targeting GI physicians (with experience of prescribing biologics) will be established by Elan with launch expected by late February 2008. With approval for Crohn’s Disease in the US, we are now including use as a 3rd line treatment in CD in our forecasts. We are assuming that Tysabri will capture 14% of the biologics market (use in 3% of all moderate to severe CD patients) generating just under $200m of revenues at peak. We have updated our SOTPs to $27.23-$29.35 (from $22.12-$24.24) (thats UP $5.11) to include (i) Tysabri in CD ($0.74) (ii) ELND-005 ($3.97) which has progressed to Phase II studies and (iii) the Lilly’s gamma secretase product ($0.40), which is expected to enter Phase III studies within the coming months. Phase II data with bapineuzumab, which is expected mid-year, could provide scope to include ACC-001 in our valuation assessment. We maintain our Buy recommendation ahead of the bapineuzumab data in mid-year. Orla Hartford PHD [phone] [e-mail] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Elan has 414million shares out. That equates to a Market Cap the Analyst used of 2.35billion because Elan only owns 70% of ELND005 Transition owns 30%..... 30% of 2.35billion is 705 million. With only 23million shares out Transition would equate to a $30.65/share for AZD-103/ELND005 ALONE!!! This analyst has followed the Alzheimers research from Elan since its infancy and has been BANG ON on her Valuations!!