RE:THE ONLY 3 VARIABLES THAT MATTER....I think that you are missing a very key point in your analysis - time.
RP2.0 is the company's future, in that we agree. Will it be funded? Yup, we agree on that too. How much value remains after financing? Honestly, not really that important. What's missing, though, is how much time it will take to get RP2.0 up and running, and how long they'll be able to survive on the income from just RP1.0 while that is happening.
They've already indicated that their plans for RP2.0 will involve getting to about $200M in capital, one way or another. One-year LIBOR atm is 1.18, and their previous round of financing was done at LIBOR +5.5%. I would expect their next round would be worse, but for the sake of argument let's assume it stays the same. That gives them an interest rate of 6.68%. For argument's sake let's assume the term is 2 years. That translates into roughly $9M per month in loan repayments, including interest, or roughly $27M per quarter.
Can Trevali generate that much income per quarter, to support both the loan repayment and existing expenses? I think it's unlikely, but it will depend entirely on what the spot price of zinc is. The real problem is - if they can't, either because of unexpected expenses, delays, or whatever, and if they run out of money in the process, there really isn't any way out.
I'm certainly hopeful that spot prices will remain sky-high, but I think it's a mistake to assume that they are in any way safe.