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A naive forecasting model for Trevali is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Trevali Mining Corporation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Geven 30 days horizon, the value of Trevali Mining Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 0.92
Trevali Mining Prediction Pattern
Trevali Forecasted Value
June 20, 2015
0.93
Market Value
Next Trading Day Forecast
Model Predictive Factors
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Trevali Mining Corporation. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.