TV Price Movement TriggersThe next two triggers for any real price movemnet (+/- 20%) are:
- External Factor - Announcement of Benchmark TCs for 2021: TCs of $200-225 are priced in. If benchmark TCs settle at ~ $175, the price could move up by ~ 20%. If on the other hand, benchmark TCs settle at ~ $250, price could move down by ~ 20%.
- Internal Factor - 2021 Q1 Operating Cash Flow and its Utilization: If TCs settle at $200-225 and Q1 operating cash flow is ~ $30M and Net Debt as on 30th April is ~ $80M, this will be an indication that internally things are moving in the right direction. Price could move up by ~ 20%.
Best case scenario: External and Internal Factors combine in a positive manner enhancing the Q1 Operating Cash Flow beyond $30M and reducing the Net Debt below $80M as on 30th April. In such a scenarion, we could see the share price go up by ~ 40% by end May.
I think, for a change, we are going to see the best case scenario happen.
IMHO