RE:TV Price Movement TriggersI refer you to my post dated 22nd March 2021 when I predicted that we could see TV stock price go up by 40% by end May. TV price on 22nd March was $0.19. Today it is $0.26-0.27 range which is a ~ 40% increase.
My prediction was based on certain TRIGGERS.
External Factor:
TCs were settled at $159 (below my trigger expectation of $175). This was definitely a positive.
Internal Factors:
Operating cash flows before working capital changes was $15.452M (well below my trigger expectation of ~ $30M). This was definitely a negative
Net Debt as on 31st March was $92.6M. I had expected a trigger Net Debt of $80M as on 30th April. If we deduct the free cash flow generated during April from Net Debt of $92.6M as on 31st March, Net Debt as on 30th April will come to ~ $82M to $85M. This was a Neutral.
To sum up, external factor helped overcome the failure of the management to deliver on the internal factors.
Going forward, I expect the management to maintain its record of failures. However, since the external factors are very favourable at present, despite management's failures to control costs, TV will generate substantial profits, operating cash flows, and free cash flows. Based on a net profit of 1.5c for Q2 (annualized 6c), I expect TV share price to be in the 0.45 to $0.48 range (P/E: 8) by end August 2021. If TV maintains a net profit in the 1.5c to 2c per quarter during Q3 and Q4 as well, market's confidence in the company will increase and the P/E would increase to 10 to 12 and by end of February 2022, the share price would be in the $0.72 to $0.96 range.
IMHO