RE:RE:RE:Do we go sub 900m on debt Wednesday morning I'm not sure why some on this board are expecting TVE debt to already be below $900 million in Q1 and potentially be announced at Wednesday's Annual Meeting?
Here's the RBC analyst's commentary on this topic and it seems to me that although he believes TVE could meet the $900 million target before Q3, I highly doubt he is expecting that to occur by Q1. Hence, my take is that some here should probably curb their enthusiasm given the recent reduced 6,000 barrels a day production and the recent lower than expected share buy backs.
The analyst rates TVE as Outperform - Speculative risk with a $4.50 PT. Apparently he hasn't been speaking with Eric N....LOL. RBC Q1 EPS estimate for TVE is .30 cents p/share.
Don't get me wrong TVE will eventually have its day, but that's a few months out yet. Noiw, if WTI can get back above $80 US and the WCS spreads keep narrowing, then maybe, just maybe they will reach the $900 million target in Q2.
After Wednesday's meeting and TVE shares resume the decline to around the $3.50 level (as per the technicals), just buy more shares, and relax. Morningstar Research has a 2024 EPS estimate for TVE of $4.10 a share so if TVE only earns .30 cent in Q1 then that leaves another $3.80 potential EPS from Q2 to Q4 and so if these estimates are even close that puts TVE with a FWD PE ratio of less than 1x or in English...stupid cheap! BUT TVE management needs to deliver and not do something stupid in the meantime, and that's really the $900 million question.
My opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77
May 5, 2024
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.
Return of capital a key priority. Management’s RoC framework ramps as leverage is reduced, with key debt levels triggering higher payouts. Tamarack plans to return 25%/50%/75% of excess free funds flow to shareholders through base dividends, NCIB, and/or special dividends, respectively, on a quarterly basis upon reaching $1.1B/$900mm/$500mm in net debt; we expect the company to reach its second net debt threshold ($900 million) by Q3/24.