RE:Strong Buy???Who knows? On a spreadsheet this is a very attractive investment. You can pencil out a FCF yield compared to peers and get a $2+ share price. That was the mistake I made a few years ago when I bought in at around these levels. It was a different company then and I thought I understood it.
I've doubled up (in 2020) and sold half (the last couple of weeks) since then, might not have been the best investment of 2020 but it worked out ok. What happens now largely hinges on the success of their spin off LCFS IPO. I get the investment proposition: high EBITDA growth with attractive returnt capital investment projects in the wings, but that was the exact story they sold TWM with.
Now they're creating a new currency (LCFS) to chase a new type of investor, keep raising more funds to chase the next project. They may find lightning in a bottle again as they did with Predator Midstream, and I'm along for the ride for a little bit, but I think there's a required discount and need to separate the business on a spreadsheet to the reality of a truly interconnected midstream operator like KEY or PPL.
The LCFS spin off gives me bad vibes but I'll be happy to be proved wrong in the coming weeks.