Missed Opportunity - Jump Around
Owned TAB/TXP on/off for eons. Problem with TXP when you sit across the table from Paul Baay/John Wright knowing the billions of shareholder value destroyed during their tenure at True/Lightstream you have a different perspective of the stock and what these two tell you.
I sold my position at the beginning of the year as oil moved to @$50 into CPG and then @$60 heavy oil like MEG, GXE , JOY , ATH & CJ. I always revisit and rebalance based on my modeling each name as oil gyrates up or down and according to valuation.
The lost opportunity here in 2021 (not 2020 stock was great) was waiting for results based on a static gas price during a tight oil market with wti rising made little sense regardless.
In the Coastal/CEN days which I was a big part of I could see TXP going to $10 with the right mgt team and a bit of fortune on the drillbit. Currently the stock is capped with this result (time being)and may be a good entry point soon to play next spud. Problem is can anybody be happy with a stock where the price bled down before the release? The track record of Baay/Wright doesn't give you a sense of confidence with these kinds of releases. I believe we will see $70 oil soon and there is a huge lost opportunity waiting for TXP YTD as Canadian oil names have double, tripled and more... If oil pushes higher there is a great deal more upside in the above names based on $60-$70 oil.
I get it though, I miss the CEN days and playing the BBN Spud. Internationals are a different game and are fun but beware of the lost opportunity. Play TXP wisely trade around, get up and get down and Jump around.