Post by
1geoguy on Sep 26, 2021 12:44pm
gas is sold @ $2.50ish
I read where Baay stated that price was close to $2.50, so no surprises. Margin, you say NGC takes raw gas for $2.50 and then it is their gas? They need to find the buyer/ That is strange, I never seen such a deal, in Canada the producers find a buyer, it is not the middle man. The deal has never been fully disclosed, it is held tight, little deatils revealed
But I believe you margin, you are adamant, and despite that you are dead wrong about me being not me, I looked and sure as hell I am me and not someone you think about.
still, in the end it is up to NGC to find that buyer, NGC pays $2.50 for all gas from ths block, yes the deal has price options after 5 years at $2.50. Very little detail about that deal, is is held close.
Too bad the lid is on at $2.50 per Mmcfd, that is half current US prices and a fraction of world prices for LNG.. so low in fact, it should be easy to sell all the gas at that price, the arbitrage beween $2.50 and nearing $25 in some countries is there, someone will make a lot. being so, it sure be strange it takes years to sell gas at $2.50 that should take an hour, not years..
While the gas is characterized as liquids rich, indeed it would be such but that is a low threshold. The reserve report says they might have 10 million barrels, pre-royston of course. The decline in liquids production from these wells will be extreme.. Wells that come on at 700-1000 bopd end Y1 producing maybe 200.that is the experience in the Montney and I suspect gas being gas those numbers will hold, on the average. Little to be gained from TXP building a seperation unit, then again having a deal at $2.50 is so low they would like that extra bit of cash flow. I know somone will say 900 bopd makes it very attractive, well flish liquids from the stream falls of quickly. it would be better to sell the gas as rich with higher btu content and get an extra price. as I said that deal is opaque and looks to have a very bad price
Mother nature has been generous here, this has a lot of gas in this reservoir. again 2 sheets to produce from and with the big krakken prospect just below the current focus at royston, drilling the next well should be aimed at krakken with the two producable sheets above making it a free shot at glory. Problem there being, having a rig capable of 12000 feet thru high pressure sheets 500' feet thick. A cinch with modern rigs.
, it seems also strange not knowing if they are drilling thru 300 feet of gas pay twice in the same hole. maybe the new drig will have gas detectors. Seriously, after mistaking chinook for a winner one would think Baay would not want to look the fool again, and maybe get sued, announcing a great discovery and doing an equity raise on that false report. PO'd a lot of investors with that bit of stupidity
Comment by
Davidblackgreen on Sep 26, 2021 6:12pm
Margin321 I "borrowed" your Chinook comments and posted on ADVFN in the U.K. giving you full credit of course.
Comment by
1geoguy on Sep 27, 2021 10:16am
to correct you, in Canada the producer indeed sells to a end custumer, the pipeline owner, Enbriddge, does not find the end user at all. it would be Toremailne selling 100Mmcfd for a 3 year term to Indiana electric.. Enbridge, the pipeline company just has gas lines to operate, nothing about finding sales for producers.