Vermilion Energy Inc. T.VET

Nat Bk Financial $14

[Dragon1]

NBF has finally raised their target from 10 to $14 which is still based on WTI of $55.I expect their target and analysis to change quite a bit after Q-2 results and O and NG prices over the summer.Debt and reduced production plus hedging hindering the price increase remain the main concerns.

[Tommy123]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Oldnagger]

I just finished doing a revision of VET's free cash flow based on Q1 updated with current commodity prices. I get an astounding $6 per share per year. Now, I dont know what is a good multiple for share price over cash flow, but it is certainly a lot higher than 2.  Perhaps , if you would deal in numbers , you might gain a little credibility, as it stands right now your motivations are

[Tommy123]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Tommy123]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Oldnagger]

I was constantly annoyed by the way that the Canadian banks have treated investments in the Canadian petroleum industry. Lately , it seems that they are coming around by increasing their target prices . Sometimes by very substantial percentages. For this reason, I trust my own analyses better than I trust theirs. It is not ego, it is financial survival. By the time the analysts tell you what to do

[Tommy123]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Oldnagger]

My share price view is extremely optimistic. I believe that in todays environment, it will be very unlikely that renewables will be able to grow anywhere near fast enough to displace both reduced coal consumption and depleting petroleum production. The lead times for investments and the efficacy of those investments will simply not be enough. for instance CCS schemes may remove CO2 but they use

[whoLuLu]

GREAT POST !!!  {Should take awhile fo EV to replace ICE as well.  GOOD LUCK !!

[Oldnagger]

There are recent studies that showthat EV's up to a certain mileage cause more CHG's than ICE vehicles. On a life cycle basis though they are an improvement.I am definetly with the environmentalists, I just believe that they need to do more listening and less shouting. I wont go into it, but there are many very reasonable solutions that are much less costly than what is proposed. They

[halitosis8]

Re:  By the time the analysts tell you what to do, you very well may have missed a 100% rise. In some cases even 300%. yes, you're right about that.  where were the screaming buys and sells when this stock crashed and then shot up to the current share price?  It doesn't really help much when the analysts walk you up slowly from $3 to $11 with a hold rating all the way.

[Oldnagger]

Everyone should remember that it was demonstrated a long time ago that fund managers and bank analysts as a group did not do better than the general indexes. This was the basis for the ETF fund industry which is huge as we speak. Individuals can beat the average. One important way is to be lucky. If you are not lucky then look for special situations that may be undervalued for odd reasons. I

[GregC24]

Luck is not an investment strategy.  Anyone pushing luck as an important way to fuel your investment strategy should be ignored completely.

[hobbitnobbit]

Your reading comprehension skills are lacking. Nowhere did he say that luck was an important way to fuel ones investment strategy. He merely mention that luck is sometimes a factor but it should not be relied upon. He suggests instead that you look for special situations where a stock maybe undervalued.  In short, he is saying the exact opposite of what you claim he says.

[Oldnagger]

Thanks for clearing that up for me, I usually try to express myself clearly, but obviously I should try harder sometimes !!

[hobbitnobbit]

I found your post to be very clear and no amount of rewording can guard against someone who is determined to react with malicious intent. I suspect the poster has more problems than reading comprehension.

[GregC24]

And this is just childish.  

[hobbitnobbit]

I think I struck a nerve.  Do feel free to put me on ignore. I certainly indend to reciprocate. 

[GregC24]

"Individuals can beat the average. One important way is to be lucky. If you are not lucky then look for special situations that may be undervalued for odd reasons." That says that individuals can beat the average.  It is immediatlely followed by saying an important way is to be lucky.  And then, if not lucky, to look for special situations. So, we establish a subject, beating

[Oldnagger]

With the analytical skills that you have demonstrated, I would highly recommend that you fully rely on luck for all your activities  LOL

[Oldnagger]

Anyone who twists what others say should be ignored completely !!

[Dragon1]

Right Oldnag,I quit brokers 20 yrs ago when they were cautious on gold when it was going from275 to 1900$.Also tech analysis and moving averages are great looking backwards but seem to ignore facts and common sense.I'm still baffled by oil going up$1 and gas 7cents and sp dropping.Even with hedging NA gas at 3.77 with Euro much higher VET has to be lining up a terricfic 2 and 3rd quarter.

[Oldnagger]

You brought up a very important point for me, that is the inherent backward focus of charting and tech analysis. That is certainly a key factor in why high value opportunities like VET continue to persist. You sir must be a great carpenter for you have certainly hit the nail on the head !!