Vermilion Energy Inc. T.VET

VET 124% Dividend Yeild @ $100 oil

[PipelessPauper]

My enthusiasm stems mostly from my oil price thoughts .... and where it’d be when DUC’s run out. And I belive there is little doubt they will at current pace of usage...which sets the table for $100 oil.  

If I didn’t have this view, CVE would be by number #1 instead of #2. 

Some quick numbers to show you why I’m so bullish: 
- 85,000 boe/d guidance  
- 50/40/10 oil/ng/ngls 
- ~$48 / boe cash cost w/ current NG & NGL prices 
- $2.017 B FFO @ $100 oil 
- guided $300 mm for 2021 capex 
- ~$1.72 B FCF at $100 oil for a year 
- shares o/s = 159.5mm 
- mkt cap of $1.39 B 
- implied FCF yeild of 123.4% @ $100 WTI 
- if all FCF went as a div, that’s $10.78 a share annually 

-current $8.71stock price, that’s an implied 124% DIVIDEND YEILD 

I know that sounds crazy, and it is.....For a company this cheap. 
THAT’s why their my #1 

If I thought WTI would stay around 70, CVE would be #1. 

But I don’t. I think WTI goes AT LEAST to $100 when DUCs run out....

[geemonet]

The DUCs won't run out.... when the massive surplus of DUCs comes back to normal they'll start drilling new holes. They're not not drilling cuz they don't have rigs... they're not drilling cuz they have a surplus of wells to complete.

[PipelessPauper]

That is 100% BS I DONT KNOW WHERE TO START

[whoLuLu]

U.S. Shale Burning Through its Inventory of DUC Wells SHARE      Jamie Wilkie Aug 4th 2021 | Business, Oil & Gas Courtesy of Rystad Energy via Oil & Gas Journal Production of shale oil and gas can be like running a video game studio. If a video game company was sure that its highly-anticipated

[geemonet]

Did you even look at the chart there mr willie??? The head line should read 'burning through their ECXESS ducs and getting back to normal inventory'. There is like maybe 5% less ducs than when covid started... 1500 more than there was in 2013.... this story is like when someone who's 500lbs is stoked about losing 50... it ain't like they're starving to death....  If we

[PipelessPauper]

“There is like maybe 5% less ducs than when covid started... 1500 more than there was in 2013....” thats a flat out lie, but even if true,, why does 2013 matter?? What was US production in 2013?? F***ing idiot

[geemonet]

Sorry, 12% ohhhhhhh scary!!!! The sky is falling the sky is falling, there are no wells oh my!!!!! There are 12 % less ducs!!!!  what, do you think they won't drill more wells? And I'm the idiot?   

[PipelessPauper]

You didn’t answer my question fool Answer mine and then i MIGHT answer yours...

[geemonet]

What was your question?

[PipelessPauper]

“why does 2013 matter?? What was US production in 2013?”

[geemonet]

Isn't that about the last time oil was $100 a barrel? 

[PipelessPauper]

No, that’s 2014

[geemonet]

Was there a real big difference between ducs in 2013-2014 ? Naw. look. You can nitpick all you want. The duc count was bloated, now it's coming back to normal, this will not equal $100 oil. If you think that.... well, good luck. Hey. I own vet, I wish you were right, but... it doesn't make any sense. They'll just drill more. They aren't drilling cuz they have lots of ducs.... as

[sclarda]

geemonet wrote Was there a real big difference between ducs in 2013-2014 ? Naw. look. You can nitpick all you want. The duc count was bloated, now it's coming back to normal, this will not equal $100 oil. If you think that.... well, good luck. Hey. I own vet, I wish you were right, but... it doesn't make any sense. They'll just drill more. They aren't drilling cuz they have lots

[PipelessPauper]

We’ll see who right in time Sclarda... we’ll see $100 oil by Xmas

[geemonet]

If There is war in the Middle East. Yes, that's what leads to 100 oil. You do realize thay opec has still curtailed production yeah? They keeping prices high, then the Americans start drilling, then they flood the markets. They're manipulating oil prices to bankrupt the shale drillers. The shale drillers also know this so they're just picking away at the ducs. As soon as they run out

[Oldnagger]

[Oldnagger]

[Oldnagger]

[ronster65]

Biden now with plate in hand wishing he allowed XL to go through. Now has to beg the Saudis for more Oil. If Trudeau wants any support in the West he better be calling Biden and saying..." Hey Joe...Got some oil for ya if ya want it?" Pipe already in the ground! Look how stupid the Liberal look now that they did not allow the pipe to run East as a back up plan. Saudis love the $70 buck

[whoLuLu]

most all politicians just play flavour of the day for votes ..

[stockmarket1]

Turdeau is another hypocryte! He avoids the west end ( OIL ) unless he's here for photo ops running the seawall ( Vancouver )  or the LGBTQ groups.  He's good for ripping off tax payers too for his own agendas. He doesn't care. Oh, last elections he actually lost the majority of people's votes but won because of eastern seats! Another sham system imo. What's the point

[mnztr]

When is the last time a Canadian govt won more then 50% support? lol  Why would he waste his time campaigning when they shut out the party?  He is smart to spend as little time as possible in the AB and SK. Its just a waste of his time.

[Pandora]

"He is smart" ????

[mnztr]

Well he is PM so he is definitely smart.

[PipelessPauper]

Lol @ Biden: ”Please sir, I want some more” LOLOLOLOL

[mnztr]

What difference would KXL make to world oil prices? ZERO NADA

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[sclarda]

schoolinmoe42 wrote So Aug 16th, Sclarda....thoughts on eps...or the new fcf projections??...Keeping in mind, it could be anyone's guess....what are you thinking?? ----------------------------------------------------------   From their presentation at  $65 WTI around where WTI seems to have been averaging last quarter  they should be cashflowing aprox.  $750 million per

[L0ung3r]

Something else to consider.  US$15/mmbtu = about US$87/boe  = ~C109/boe yes they were heavily hedged into the end of the year, but only 1/3 hedged in 2022... If they are agressively hedging the first quarter at these prices that will have a material impact on cashflows... and if TTF continues to increase through the winter due to shortages, Q2-Q4 pricing should be pulled up higher

[PipelessPauper]

And a bunch of you folks think I’m crazy for calling $100 oil.... look at at what’s happening in NG? One day soon O&G is gonna stop being the Rodney Dangerfield of the stock mkt...

[geemonet]

I don't think you're crazy for predicting $100 oil. I just disagree with your analysis of how the duc count will contribute to it. I think they will just start drilling more holes before the duc count gets low. They'll unleash the rigs and up production before $100 is hit. Need a war to get $100 oil. 

[PipelessPauper]

Fair... but your comment begs the question: Then why arn’t they doing it yet? Is $70 not good enough? What price is?

[geemonet]

Rig count rose to 16 month high today. now that the glut has been cleared the drilling will commence.  pretty predictable .

[PipelessPauper]

Not according to what I’m reading..... got data?

[geemonet]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Rises-To-16-Month-High.amp.html

[PipelessPauper]

“The total rig count is now 500” barely above the 2016 trough at $30 oil.  Are you sure youre long??

[PipelessPauper]

Simple logic says that we were producing 7.3 mm bpd in 2013... now at 11.3 mm were we bloated in DUCs in 2013 too?

[geemonet]

No, they were just completing them after drilling.  you haven't spent much time on a rig have ya? 

[PipelessPauper]

Ps i already know the answer. But just to put 2013 in perspective, in case Dummy doesn’t answer, here is US production by year: U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)   Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6

[PipelessPauper]

Good post thank you for that lulu you have more patience for idiots than I do