RE:RE:Economy has less ability to recover than typical recessionI do believe effective treatnent is likely our best option in solving this but this is many months or years away. A safe and effective vaccine is years away or may never be found. Developing herd immunity while isolating the elderly and vulnerable would have been our smartest approach but our society isn’t willing to do this.
I don’t see this virus simply disappearing. It’s too highly contagious and shows no signs of weakening. And efforts to reopen have been failing, with Germany being the latest example as infections have spiked up days after loosening restrictions.
As far as the success in Taiwan, New Zealand, and Finland goes, it helps to be a homogeneous society, and/or thinly populated, and/or highly educated, and/or an island. Global commerce will not see 2019 levels until the year 2022 at the absolute soonest with some economists suggesting it could take a decade to get back to pre-coronavirus levels. Stock indexes do not have these possibilities considered in the slightest.
https://news.trust.org/item/20200510080412-ndjt9 yggdrasilll wrote: While what you say isn't wrong, there is also the possibility that this disappears in less than a year. Remdesivir or another drug could be proven so effective that we won't need to worry, an antigen treatment could be developped, a vaccine could be developped, or Sars-Covid-2 could mutate and disappear like Sars-Covid-1 did.
While I do feel it isn't cautious to pin our financial well-being on hopes, I also feel it's important to remember that we do have possible solutions to our current plight. So if you must go out, wear a mask, and don't forget to wash your hands often. If you can, use plastic gloves and throw them away in between each store. Taiwan, New Zealand, Finland, and others have shown that we can beat Covid-19 within our borders with contact tracing, PPE, quarantining travellers, and using common sense. If we can copy their methods, we won't need to rely so much on luck and hope.
WheresMeGold wrote: The stock market is anticipating a strong V-shaped recovery with indexes either barely down or up YTD. However, with the virus not going away for many months and likely years, I would strongly argue this deep recession will not recover nearly as well as typical recessions or even the Great Recession of a dozen years ago. Demand destruction has become massive and systematic.
Tens of millions of jobs have been lost, many permanently. Small businesses, the true engine of a vibrant economy, are getting absolutely crushed with over half anticipating going under within 6 months. Stick your head in the sand (like John) or rely on psychics (like Moe) to avoid reality but this economy will not recover in the 9-18 months of typical recessions. And this recession is going to cut INCREDIBLY deep.
Critical mass is building in understanding this new, ugly reality. The stock market will reflect this soon enough. Energy is particularly vulnerable in this environment. Invest accordingly. JMHO. GLTA.