VGCX - 2024 Q1 EPS Estimate & My EstimateRBC consensus EPS 2024 Q1 estimate for VGCX:
2024 Q1 Estimate Range
Estimate Range
Earnings estimate data for VGCX. The median analyst estimated target price for the next year is 14.68 with a range of 10 to 18. | Analysts | 3 |
| High | 0.11 |
| Low | 0.11 |
| Consensus | 0.08 |
Trend: Downward
Earnings estimate data for VGCX | Today | 0.08 |
| 30 Days Ago | 0.11 |
| 90 Days Ago | -- |
Analyst Revisions
Analyst Revisions Last 7 Days | Last 7 Days |
| -- Up | -- Down |
Analyst Revisions Last 30 Days | Last 30 Days |
| -- Up | -- Down |
And so considering the 2023 Q1 EPS actual was .02 cents, you'd think that the market would be happy with .08 cents in 2024 Q1 but by looking at VGCX share price today, notwithstanding that the price of gold is down $32.40 to $2342.70 as I write, the market seems to be pricing in much lower to negative Q1 earnings.
I too was expecting very low to negative 2024 Q1 earnings until I did a very rough calculation of my own and came up with a Q1 estimate of around .16 cents a share. Now I admit upfront that I'm no accountant so I could be way off here but I don't think I'm off by more that .04 or .05 cents which would still put the calculation at around .11 cents a share (which is what RBC is high end estimating).
For what it's worth, here's my calculations for VGCX 2024 Q1 in CAD dollars:
Revenue 83,504,000 (29,580 oz prod x Avg. Q1 Realized Price $2823 CAD)
Cost Goods Sold -44,607,000 (29,580 oz prod x Actual Cost $1508 CAD in 2023 Q1)
Depreciation & Depletion
-17,627,000 (Used same figure as in Q1 2023)
Gross Profit 21,270,000 Corporate Gen & Admin
-3,226,000 (Used Q1 2023 number)
Operating Earnings 18,044,000 Finance Costs -5,815,000 (Used same as Q1 2023)
Unrealized & Realized Loss
On Derivative Instruments -325,000 (Q1 Forward Gold sales est. loss)
Foreign Exchange gain (loss)
Nil (Not sure so applyin zero gain / loss)
11,904,000 Income Before Taxes 11,904,000
Deferred Tax Expense
- 686,000 (Used same amount as Q1 2023)
Net Income 11,218,000 Net Income of $11,218,000 CAD divided by 67,711,000 shares O/S = 16.6 cents a share (Basic) Now I'm sure you're thinking, they only produced 29,580 oz of gold in 2024 Q1 so how can they possibly have net earings of .16.5 cents a share when they only earned .02 cents a share in Q1 2023 with $96,549,000 CAD Revenue and produced 37,619 ounces!
Well that was my initial thought as well, but it appears that because their production in Q1 2024 was about 8,000 ozs lower in Q1 2024 that their Cost of Goods Sold is about $13.3 million CAD lower as well (using the same cost of $1508 CAD in Q1 2023 x 29,580 oz).
And then (unless I'm missing something), the $9,576,000 CAD loss on Derivative Instruments (Forward Gold sales, etc) in Q1 2023 appears to only be a loss of about $325,000 in Q1 2024.
I left some of the other (smaller) cost line items out because it's near impossible to estimate those numbers but based on Q1 2023 entries I doubt they would account for more than $1 million in expenses/losses or maybe even a gain depending on how the Foreign Exchange rate works out (i.e. a loss or a gain).
So there's my humble opinion for what it's worth.
Guess we'll know soon enough. Hope I'm right because if I am the short sellers are going to get handed their a$$es tommorrow morning!
My opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77