Victoria Gold Corp T.VGCX

POG below 1700$

[Greatdaysahead]

Not a good news for Gold producer short term.

But regarding Victoria, impact depends of the current procution and oz sold.

Indeed, POG below 17000 =

- less revenu from the sales of Gold
- but less amount due for the  call sold. As we know, part of the production  (15K ou per quarter) has a capted price of C$ 1936
So if they sell exactly 15000 oz in 1st quarter, they get at minima 1936$ net (average price at which they sold the 15000 oz through the quarter less the repayment to Macquarie being POG at maturity of the call less C$1936.
- They have 5000 oz per month protected at 1700 usd.. So with POG below 1700, the open put have a value at maturity.

[OCB1234]

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[MVargas]

Actually I'm hoping that this "dip" below $1700 lasts for another day. I'm pretty sure that the C$1936 call options have end-of-quarter settlement dates and at the current gold price of C$2127, Victoria's Q1 payment to McQuarie would be less than C$3 million. Q1 production should be heavily skewed to the early part of the quarter as there was more than 14,000 oz of gold in

[Research67]

On top of that, Victoria had 14k poured ounces in unsold inventory at the end of 2020. Perhaps a hedge against Q1 production? I'm curious about the inventory on line 6 of the year end financials, under the "in process inventory" of $69 mil; this number has been climbing since first introduced in Q2 2020; how will it relate to production? Will it be an forecasting indicator? If so

[OCB1234]

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[Research67]

I have to admit, I struggle with the concept that Q1 is the perceived  weakest quarter and look forward to acquiring the knowledge to understand this better. With the recovery process taking up to 200 days and the most tonnage and gold stacked Pryor to a new quarter as of December 31 2020, does it not seem like Q2 would be the weaker quarter, with stacking restarting in early March? In other

[OCB1234]

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[Research67]

With respect OCB1235, Q2 2020 Victoria produced (Apl-6768, May-7756, June-13828) a total of 28362 ounces. This production took place while installing initial covid protocols and all of the production delays due to liner wear, under powered conveyors and numerous other setbacks. I strongly suspect Q2 2021 will and should be substantially better...or we're in trouble! Time will tell, very much

[OCB1234]

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[Whateverrr]

Yes, one should certainly hope every aspect of their production should be better.  Their opening year was very poor.  Remember when Tony George left ?  We mentioned that did not bode well?  Bingo.   The stock deserves to be where it is at right now and obviously can move up with better mine performance in every catagory and better POG.

[MVargas]

Hi Research67, I don't know how long you've been following Victoria, but to give you a bit of insight into the recovery process, John McConnell is on the record by previously stating that there is 80% recovery after 45 days and full recovery at 150 days.  More recently he has extended full recovery to 200 days, but certainly recovery is heavily weighted towards the first few months -

[Research67]

MVargas Appreciate the sharing of your insights. Somewhere along the line I missed the 80% in 45 days comment. Your detailed explanation of full year guidance makes sense and fills the gaps in my own calculations. Your model ends up being within 10% of actual for Q1 2021 with Victoria saying production was slightly above expectations. Perhaps there are a few micro factors (temperature