RE:RE:RE:Some are moving in right direction - not VII thoughmy personal opinion on the VII / WTI correlation is because
A) VII has the highers condensate ratio from the peers, so it's most likely to get affected by WTI prices, relative to its GAS peers; WTI pricing ultimately impacts WCS pricing, which may impact heavy crudes production which impacts condensate demand - this relationship is quite removed, nonetheless it clearly still exists - evidence is in condensate pricing since october, where seemingly sudden drop in demand for heavy (due to outage in BC and the unseasonally high/long maintenance for several other refinaries) depressed condensate prices severely
B) VII with market cap of some 5 billion and very large free trading float (someone here estimated 160mil shares free trading) is VERY liquid and so it can be effectively used by algo traders without fear of liquidity issues (to downside) or drastic short squeezes (to upside)
C) with over 60% of revenue coming from condensate and under current conditions (pre-winter) majority of profit coming from condensate, any % movement in price condensate (and therefore WTI, if above point holds water) has much greater impact on profitability than any such similar % move in dry gas price
IMO these are three key factors that result in VII short-term price movements being so closely correlated to WTI. From long term perspective, I hope this correlation gets debunked, otherwise we'll never see 30 bucks again - I believe that VII has turned the corner on efficiencies, production issues, management competency, etc, so my hope is that if VII keeps spewing out cash like is now capable of doing, we'll get repriced from the ridiculous 3.7 EV/CF to a more reasonable 5-6 EV/CF in short order, hopefuly over the next one or two quarters of earnings releases..