RE:We need the refineries to come on, 2 weeks to recoveryre WTI/VII trading relationship - I mean directionally, of course, not proportionally ... the proportionality would depend on profitability factors between condensate versus oil, but directionality seems evident to me - if you overlay gas charts and wti charts and VII, clearly, VII trades on WTI, not on gas price - compare PEY, AAV, as example of mid-tier cdn dry gas producers to 1yr gas chart - VII looks nothing like any of these three, while PEY and AAV (until AAV got over-shorted) followed the gas chart, more or less;
totally agree with you on C2-C5 pricing; to me upshot in VII, given the recent carnage, is
- C2-C5 pricing strength
- processing capacity, including wellhead wet gas processing abilities
- firm transportation capacity, including almost 100% SPARE capacity going into 2020 (firm gas transportaion commitments for some 200,000 bb/d equivalent by 2020 into US markets)
- of course, nat gas winter pricing spikes, US as well as AECO, which we still do sell some into, although overall 1/2 production is already hedged