Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

4th Quarter

[TUMONE1]

Saving grace will be positive CF 4th quarter, some stock taken off market and Condensate and WCS to recover somewhat.  We have a while to wait.  
Things have literally fallen off a cliff.

Tell tale will be where it closes tomorrow.

[dalerules88]

I don't think the keystone decision will impact VII much; we are trading off WTI more than WCS, it seems; noenetheless the keystone decision is a major headwind - but more likely for smaller cdn producers; the big boys have all kinds of transport capacitly either in the works or locked up; it's the mid and small cap producers that are hurting the most; if you're pushing 200,000 bb/d

[TUMONE1]

Well said - and yes we need a recovery in CDN Condensate - we went from $76.33 as of Oct 25 - down to under $43 as of now. I believe we will see a big turn for the positive come January moving forward. - WTI and Condensate might be earlier.-cycle based.

[dalerules88]

check that condy number, unless that's USD: PSAC has it Nov 7 close @ 56.63CAD (down from 78.03 same time last year) oilsandsmag has it Nov 8 close @ 55.93CAD (down form 69.08CAD on Oct 25 or 88.66CAD recent high Oct 3) nonetheless, it's painful, no doubt, but this should bounce back once the refinery volumes pick up, I hope; plus there's condy coming up from texas still - I

[dalerules88]

condensate pricing - so far we're averaging, from Oct 1 to Nov 8/2018, $74.73CAD/bbd if we bounce back soon, then Q4 should still be very good, considering VII has about 35,000bb/d hedged for Q4, so only 1/2 the Q4 production is exposed  

[dalerules88]

further to the transportation problem, it has been suggested that the condensate pipelines coming from US to Canada could reverse the flow and use it for alta oil going south; if Alta can supply enough condensate to satisfy demand, this would add up to 220,000 bbd capacity doing south; there are two pipelines, as far as I recall, one is about 120,000 and the other remaining 100,000 or so ... even