RE:RE:Where Does WTO Go - What Will OPEC Do this Weekend?My take is that the Saudi reaction, as well as the Iran waivers were just effectively for optics prior to midterm elections; now that that's over, it will be back to business, which IMO is OPEC cuts, Iran waivers eventually pulled over the next six months, both of which will smooth out the market reaction and therefore WTI price movements. Trump wanted to be seen as being able to control the allies and the markets prior to elections. With that done, now both sides' interests have to be taken into consideration - cheap oil is bad for lot of folks on Trump's side of the isle, so I'm guessing the cheap oil rhetoric will dissipate quickly. Saudis probably need 70-80 dollar Brent and Trump and US economy can live with 60-70 dollar WTI, so my guess would be that's where we'll settle in the medium term. Like you said, markets hate uncertainty. Traders love it, of course, but that's another discussion.
That all said, I'm hoping we bounce off 55-60 level, maybe run up to 80 over the next six months, then pull back into a 60-70 range until the shale plays itself out and global supply/demand picture clears up. By then hopefuly shale will pewter out a bit, Canada will pick up the slack, and the rest of the world will find a happy medium. Then we might see some more investments in new projects for the next decade.
IMO