Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

Projected 2021 Numbers

[retiredengexec]

Using the 2021 budgeted numbers which I believe, and the current strip pricing which I also feel confident in, they should have funds flow around 1.15 billion and free cash flow around 500 million which is pretty respectable. If prices hold up I can see them increasing drilling. From past history they can increase q in 90 to 120 days by 20000 boepd.

[Whocares2020]

thanks retired! great work as always.  I just stood up from my desk and did a little shuffle...=)

[Robertboblaw]

Nice to see some activity on here again. Oil prices are starting to look good for 2021. Hoping this keeps up. Retiredguy or anyone else, in regards to the hedges, when does VII update it's hedge book? We know the hedge situation for 2021 (it's been posted before) but what about 2022 and beyond? When will or has VII already updated its hedge book for 2022? If oil prices keep climbing to the

[Whocares2020]

my two cents.....if we see $60 it does not mean they can automatically hedge at that price.  you need another party at the table for that, and like all transactions, both sides need some skin in the game.  We may need to see prolonged prices.  Remember the days when oil would have to stay above a certain price before the stocks moved adn usually played catch up....lol doesnt mean

[retiredengexec]

They are restricted by the hedging parameters of the board. Usually hedged at 50 percent or less. The oil hedge may have been made in early 2020. Not sure about the gas hedge and when it comes off. 2020 is right about counterparties. That said you can usually hedge at any time. You hedge to protect downside or when on balance of probabilities you think prices will drop.

[Robertboblaw]

Thx guys for the insights. Didn't see anything on VIIs presentation for 2022 and beyond so thought I'd ask you guys.

[retiredengexec]

Rob. 2022 and beyond is deeper in the presentation. Most of their gas hedges are actually costless collars.

[Robertboblaw]

Thx retired guy.

[topdown99]

One thing I might add regarding "hedges" , the end user is "motivated" to hedge in a rising price environment to help control costs and solidify future budget parameters . Airlines , heavy oil producers requiring condensate and cruise ship companies are all prime examples . As we seem to be in that very scenerio , I doubt VII would have any trouble hedging future production

[retiredengexec]

Top. Good comments on hedges. Thanks for the nice words. I just try to issue the facts as I see them based on ten years experience in the Montney and other unconventional plays. I was fortunate to get in on the ground floor technically. I think we are in for a good year. And with the costless collars on gas we are in a real good position.

[topdown99]

You know me retired , I only call it as I see it and as usual , you are way too modest . We do both agree on our outlooks for 2021 , I too feel this year will be one we won't soon forget (but for all the right reasons) . Cheers my friend !!!

[MyHoneyPot]

500 million in FCF with 334 million shares means about 1.50 a share in FCF mean the stock is trading at about 5X FCF for 2021. How much upside to you see in the stock that is trading at 5X FCF? 6X FCF is 9 dollars, 8X FCF is 12 dollars Where do you think it will max out?

[retiredengexec]

I think 6.5 is doable. What is POU trading at?

[Robertboblaw]

Hey HP. Let me jump in here. In 2018 when with oil at ~$65 throughout, pou did not generate a single dollar in free cash flow. But their share price was ~$20? How did this valuation make sense then? They had $300 mm in funds flow against ~$500mm in capital spending in 2018. That is not good at all if I can say it blatantly. And it is likely in part at least some of the reason they were not able to

[retiredengexec]

Rob. Rather than buying shares they should pay down debt in my opinion. If they paid of 500 it would bring debt down to about 1.7 billion. So at 1.1 b in flow the debt to flow is 1.7 versus 2.0. It would also give them a credit line of 2 billion more than enough to take out who ever they wanted to. Of course I'm not running the company.

[retiredengexec]

My bad. I meant cash flow.

[MyHoneyPot]

Robertboblaw - The way i see it in my cynical view of the world is this, VII generations has created more millionaire managers than any other energy company in the patch, and is not accountable to the shareholders. They will not tell the share holders why the have that extra gas plant, maybe because there is a future with a lot more gas and a lot less liquids in the works for VII generations share

[Robertboblaw]

Well HP it's good to be tough on the guys running things in the patch to keep em honest right? If anything, you've inspired me to do a deep dive into the numbers on VII vs. POU on q4 and beyond which I will attempt (lol). We'll see how the market treats these guys going forward but I am certainly counting myself among the many bullish VII voices on here. GLTA

[topdown99]

Honeypot , please bare with me answering yesterdays question today as I just got off the road and returned home . You asked "how high can the SP go ?"  As everyone was mentioning the ratio between free cash flow and the share price , the one glaring omission that I see in the answers was ......  "how high does the price per barrel go ?" As free cash flow is a direct