RE:Chance of Commerciality 51 percentNo one can do the work for you. There are a lot of great articles and information out there should you care to do the work. 51% risked is actually a very high probability at this stage and every single piece of data out there backs up the BCGA interpretation, which is probably why Statoil labels this as a discovery. The risk factor will decrease once Yamalik is tied in and producing as they will get longer term flow information, so that’s an important upcoming catalyst. The rock properties are good and the rocks are well understood from the shallow drilling updip which is why people are confident in the flow potential. Well, that and the fact that the vertical test rates and reservoir pressures are jaw dropping to those in the field. You’re right that it’s a wager of sorts, but if they get to drill these next few wells, you could see a $5 billion value net to VLE, so place your bet or stand aside. It’s fine to wait for more information, but it’ll cost you to get it.