Valeura Energy Inc. T.VLE

RE:Understanding the Fracture System and Production profile

[Kamooz]

Very interesting conclusion:

Conclusions and Discussions

Predict post-fracture production rate and its decline trend in shale reservoirs with enough certainty is crucial for ultimate recovery estimation and economic decisions. Decline curve analysis is commonly used to determine EUR and in-place reserves are based on conventional reservoir performance assumptions. In unconventional reservoirs, these assumptions may not be valid, or they may be valid only so late in the reservoir life as to be little useful. Depending on the size of SRV, matrix permeability and the density, connectivity, conductivity of fracture networks, boundary dominated flow may not be apparent in the first a few years, making traditional decline curve analysis ineffective. In addition, empirical models for decline curve analysis cannot be used to analyze what factors influence the production and decline trend, which makes it difficult to guide completion designs or optimize field development.