Valeura Energy Inc. T.VLE

Alternate Symbol(s): VLERF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Valeura Energy Inc. is an upstream oil and gas company engaged in the production, development, and exploration of petroleum and natural gas in the Gulf of Thailand and the Thrace Basin of Turkiye. The Company holds an operating working interest in four shallow water offshore licenses in the Gulf of Thailand, which include G10/48 (Wassana field), B5/27 (Jasmine and Ban Yen fields), G1/48 (Manora field) and G11/48 (Nong Yao field). It holds a 100% operating interest in license B5/27 containing the producing Jasmine and Ban Yen oil fields. It holds an operated 70% working interest in license G1/48 containing the Manora oil field, which produces approximately 2,935 barrels per day (bbls/d) of medium-weight sweet crude oil. The Company holds interests ranging from 63% through 100% in various leases and licenses in the Thrace basin. The Company also operates Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel Aurora, location at Nong Yao field, offshore Gulf of Thailand.

TSX:VLE - Post by User

Valeura Energy Inc. > Free Cash flow After Tax....$10 per share @$79 Brent

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Comment by SlowAndSteady7on Dec 16, 2022 1:27pm

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Post# 35176280

RE:RE:RE:Free Cash flow After Tax....$10 per share @$79 Brent

I'll take a stab here.

Making some assumptions around decline rates, new drilling, new MOPUs, storage vessels, G&A, etc.

At $79US per barrel, I see for CY2023
Revenue: $696M
Royalties, Taxes, and SRB: $270M
Expenses: $290M
FCF: $185M USD.

Usually, I use 2-3x FCF as my valuation metric. We have some bad stuff on the books (de-com liabilities) and some good (thrace asset, no debt), so I'll call it a wash.

I see a 12 month target of $4-6 / sh.

I very much look forward to see the financials in Q4 and Q1 to firm up some of my assumptions.

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