Post by
nozzpack on Dec 16, 2022 10:09am
Free Cash flow After Tax....$10 per share @$79 Brent
It costs $21 US per barrel production costs for the Mubby oil assets.
That is, the primary operating costs per month ......producing the oil and getting it to shore facilities...is 21000 bpd ** 30 Days ** $21 US per barrel = $13.5 million US.
Revenues are 21000 **30 day ++ $79 US = $50 million US.
So, onshore that oil has a net worth of $50 m US less $13.5 m US = $36.5 Million US, and Valeura gets 85 % of this which is $31 millon.
There will be additinal costs such as G & A , Sustaining capital and taxes etc.
We dont need to calculate this as it has already been calculated for us.....$ 7 million US. per month
How do I know this ?
Its clearly stated in the NR that Mubby and Valeura are curently splitting $24 million US /month in free after tax cashf flows.
So, $24 million US in free after Tax cash flows which is about $30 million CAD per month...straight to the cash postion.
Thats $360 million CAD per year = $4 per share in Free cash flows times 2.5 times FCF = $10 CAD per share.
At $79 US Brent per barrel
Comment by
Hannamuk on Dec 16, 2022 10:22am
OMG russians don't use CAPEX anymore:-))))
Comment by
smxmcx2 on Dec 16, 2022 10:47am
Yes. No CAPEX. TXP maintains 21,000 boepd indefinitely and banks that cash! When I first revisted this board I could not see Nozz's posts. I took him off of ignore and now I remember why I had him there. Pumps by constantly telling half of the story. Good luck to all the longs.
Comment by
SMlachake on Dec 16, 2022 10:41am
Fairly good analysis, but imo, if we could stop treating Wassana and Rokusson as if they don't exist, Wassana projected to bring 9M per Q once flowing, KE bringing tax credit synergy, you may start to see why this SP could be well north of 10 end 2023 or earlier. I guess in about three months period, all this should be plain to see.