RE:RE:RE:RE:Is It Time To Buy CPG Shares Yet......?Seems like our conclusions are pretty similar. As for the numbers I have, as on the back of your hand, cash flow totalling $2.03 billion for 2015.
billion with an avergae price of oil$51.14 if you think oil is $48 and $50 Q3 and Q4.
I have $1.3 in dividends based on an average 512 mln o/s in 2015 split drip $412.9 and cash dividends $900.6 mln. I do not count the $412.9 non cash dividends as they are non cash and a form of equity financing. (This explains our difference)
I have cap expenditures of $1.55 billion with $556.78 already spent in Q1.
So free cash flow amounts to - $419.9 million for 2015 with $341 mln of the deficit occurring in Q1 already. The deficit for the remainder of the year is not that large.
(I used 65,573 bbls for hedges at $87.50 cdn)
Debt Q2 estimated just over $4 billion and rising to $4.050 billion at year end. Most of the spending occurred in Q1 and raised debt then and acquisition debt has already beeen added in at Q2 quartwer end. Therefore the payout is just north of 100% for last three quarters in 2015.
Using $50 flat pricing 2016... $1.842 billion in cash flow less cash dividends $1.009 billion less cap ex $1.4 billion. (assumed average share o/s 525.1 million and cap ex lower in low price senario).
Production ends year at 161,464 b/d down 3.3% but this is a rather nasty price assumption. I think prices will be higher.
cheers
splurge