RE:RE:something is not right...Thousands of words could be written on the subject! Understand that the significant rig reductions of late are owing to budget cutbacks and sales forecasts, and primarily impact lower quality and earlier stage sites. As a result, the initial fall in production is not as great as the rig reduction numbers would suggest. Over time, however, as decline rates become more meaningful, the reduction in rigs starts to have a greater impact, since there is less new production in the works. The production numbers are generally pretty accurate, but of late it is harder to be sure with storage issues making for more uncertainty. U.S. production, in my view, ultimately will fall to as low as 10-11 million barrels a day, although a faster than expected restart of the economy could see that number a little higher.
baranja wrote: Does anybody understand those offical US production numbers, as they just dont' make any sense
baranja wrote: With US production numbers. I wander if anybody understands those numbers.
US is claming to produce 12 millon barrels of oil per day, but look at the rig count numbers. From 2000 rigs, just couple year ago, we have it now down to 500. It is amlost 75% drop in production or from 12 million to 3 millon barrels.. plus, minus. lets' assume it still "produces 6 millions"
US needs 21 million barrels per day to maintain it's economy (before Corona). it gets few million from Canada and Mexico, but that's not even close to whats' needed.
For any shale activity, it needs at least 70 or 80 dollars per barrel, as shale needs to drill a hole every year or two. it is extramly Capex oriented bussines. the shale in U.K. doesn't exist any more. Not a single shale field any more in U.K.
Based on Oil price, US shale will simply collapse in months or two. I bet rig count on thursday would go down for 60 to 100 rigs again. US producton is fast approaching 0 mbpd
During the last 5 years, US is massively filling the storages, like there is no tommorow. Why?
If there was no Corona, there would be no oil enought for day to day life. corona just cut the consumption in half. do we have an oil crisis righ now as we speak? Do they need to keep the corona lockdown for long, ling time to hide this fact? Is Putin trying to expose this by killing price of oil and killing every single oil source in US so this becomes obvious?. I can't belive that Saudis and Russians dont' see this.
I wander if anybody knows better but any way you calculate, someting is wrong with official narative.