RE:RE:RE:Josef Schachter's take on oilListen, as investors (or analysts) we all have been wrong at one time or another. What differentiates the prudent investor from the ignorant investor is one's willingness to admit your errors when empirical evidence points to facts that belie your predictions.
In October/November 2020, Josef was calling for a substantial drop in oil and gas stocks going into year end due to massive tax-loss selling. Well tax-loss selling didn't happen (quite the opposite occurred).
In January/February 2021, Josef was calling for a major drop in oil prices and oil and gas stocks for a host of tenuous reasons, including: OPEC cheating, re-emergence of US shale, and, believe it or not, reddit inspred rallies that would fizzle out. None of these things were happening!
During this same period, he kept saying wait until March/April for your next "low risk buying opportunity", which he would alert his newsletter subscribers too.
He (and those who followed him) missed the whole rally. As someone who sells subscriptions to an industry newsletter, he needs to justify his decision to discourage buying during the period in which oil and gas stocks skyrocketed, so he simply kicks the can down the road by saying the downturn is coming.
He is one of those people who will never 'man up' and simply say, 'I made a mistake on this call.' He will continue to pound his bearish drum until there is some sort of pullback, which he can then use to claim he was right. In my mind, he has not legitimacy whatsoever.