RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Maybe this stock's fair value is $5.53 at $73 oil.@Moemoney42: I tend to agree with your analysis. I think that we have been in sideways mode for the past few months. As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I think that this stock will move up much quicker from C$6 to $7 than it did from $5 to $6. Shorters are able to manipulate this stock given how it is has both ample liquidity and (as of late) low volumes).
The question then becomes, what will get this stock out of it's trading range. I think any number of catalysts (e.g., Q2 earnings report, dividend hike, share buyback execution). In the meantime, I have taken some inspiration from Bpultra. I bought some additional shares at C$5.57 on Monday and sold today at $5.63. I bought back in near the end of the day at C$5.55, I hope to seel those shares tomorrow or Friday if the price appreciates. I haven't sold a single share from my core position.
Moemoney42 wrote: I think good old DD is what will shed some light on it Liquid.. I don't have a short answer for you and haven't had the time to research the details.. but with the way CPG in particular has traded in the last few months, to me, an accumulation phase is in play.. to what extent I can't comment.. but my years following O&G, and the potential for balance sheet repair and ROC in many companies, spells good fortunes ahead.. smart money in my opinion is aware of this.. thus the sideways movement, then one day the shorters won't be able to control the trend, and will be in fact adding to the movement upwards.. that's the way I'm playing the oil & gas markets and will be for a couple of years at least.. barring any unforseen black swan event of course.. LiquidOctopusV2 wrote: Do you have any idea if there is a way to find metrics on whether or not they're accumulating?
Moemoney42 wrote: I agree Liquid.. the market is still in the show me stage.. unfortunenatley I don't think Q2 numbers are going to do it as the hedges have created a bit of a head wind for this quarter.. that plus the one time costs of closing Kaybob the numbers could be a bit disappointing..
I'm looking to Q3, Q4 and next year to really see the numbers and FCF ramp up.. that I believe will be the turning point for many of the O & G stocks that are in my opinion consolidating and the big money traders are the ones frustrating the market realizing that by the end of the year the prices will be much higher.. after all.. look at the rating agencies.. all of them are upping they're targets.. can't tell me they're not taking advantage of frustrated retails to build up their positions.. ;-) LiquidOctopusV2 wrote: People might think differently because as early as last October this stock was trading in the $1.50 range. That's not that long ago. It's been stuck between approx $4.70 and $5.70 since mid-March. And, that's why the arguments on this board are getting so repetitive. Nobody has much to say.
Even though people are worried - right now - about peak oil (and this is something we agree on). The fact that peak oil is still decades away hasn't seem to sunk in. There's not future in a the Canadian oil patch, even though the market isn't going to meaningfully change because of energy transition for 25 years. Canadian stocks always have to prove themselves more than their American counterparts but the market comes around. I've been investing in oil a long time. Things build slowly then a breakout. You got to take some profits while you got it.
Here's what actually holds CPG back: debt levels, being Canadian, lack of action on NCIB and the dividend, and it's still high risk. All these energy stocks are still high risk.
Pandemic recovery looks good but is still beset on all sides by uncertainty. The dividend is not built into the price. The market isn't jumping in that readily. Some of my other O&G stocks have done better than this. But none of them have had their breakout moment. The market still is on show-me mode.
JamesT wrote: Nothing more nothing less. A potential dividend increase is already factored into the share price based on the price of oil and CPG's management's ability to issue a dividend. The prospect of this stock going back to $20+ is non existant since in 2014 people were worried about peak oil with no conversations about oil demand peaking. Shale oil taught investors that oil supply will is plentiful with a higher price point and thus keeping cap on oil prices.
The best we can hope for is perhaps this stock to go over $6 @ $76 WTI, $6.50 @ $80 WTI, $7.50 @ $90 WTI. Maybe we will move up over $10 if oil stays above $80 consistently for 1-2 years (highly unlikely). Maybe this stock will get a bump of $0.50 with a worthwhile dividend increase.
The downside on the other hand, if oil goes below $70, this stock will most likely move under $5, $4.50 @ $65, and god forbid wti goes below $60.
Why would anyone think differently given we've been rangebound at around $5.50 even though WTI increased by 10 bucks over the last couple of months?