Veren Inc T.VRN

CPG's NCIB program

[highalpha1]

Lot's of chatter on here on CPG's NCIB and whether and when the company will be buying back stock. Again, we need to only refer to the CEO's words from Q1 earnings release. Craig B. tacitly stated that direct shareholder returns won't be executed until "leverage targets" are met. Although the company does not specify what is the precise leverage target, I will speculate that it is close to 1.5x CF. By year end, CPG will be around that target using $60 WTI (even sooner based on today's prices). 

Now imagine this scenario: once CPG achieves its leverage target of ~1.5x later this year and assuming that crude prices hold, CPG would begin to return FCF to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividend increases. Just imagine how much this stock will re-rate when a sustainable dividend increase is announced. Should this scenario play out, we will be trading at a much higher share price than we are today.

Finally, seventh green day for CPG in a row (on a day the TSX/S&P/Dow/Oil price all closed in the red)!

[Backinblack1000]

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[Bpultra]

Short shares increased..??? ....https://www.iiroc.ca/industry/marketmonitoringanalysis/Pages/consolidated-short-position-report.aspx ==================

[Backinblack1000]

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[Bpultra]

LLook who is on this list..  https://shortdata.ca/top-covered-shorts SYMBOL COMPANY NAME 01 JUN 2021 17 MAY 2021 NET CHANGE % CHANGE ENB ENBRIDGE INC. 1,154,880,278 4,944,670,062 -3,789,789,784 -328.15 MFC MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORPORATION 410,727,503 1,780,733,408 -1,370,005,905 -333.56 RY ROYAL BANK OF

[LiquidOctopusV2]

I think he's right on the money and is more open to discussion that most on this board.  I won't speak for him though. 

[Backinblack1000]

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[highalpha1]

@Backinblack1000: My comments are never intended to be disrespecful. I try to engage in dialouge. I present my views and, whenever possible, I try to substantiate my statements in empirical evidence (e.g., referring to corporate presentations, quarterly earnings statements, and expert commentary). I based my comments about shorter term assets based on CPG's announcement when they acquired the

[Bpultra]

[highalpha1]

@Bpultra: Stop loss is one tool for managing risk -- and whether you choose to use it or not and at what price needs to be determined by your individual situation. If you have strong conviction that the share price will be on an upward trajectory, but there may be some lumps along the way, then, you may choose not to use it. But if you want to manage risk to some degree, it is worth considering.

[Backinblack1000]

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[Bpultra]

[iownbmw545]

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[Backinblack1000]

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[highalpha1]

@Backinblack1000: I agree with you. Nuttall is in CPG now because the value proposition in CPG looks relatively attractive to other companies. When he see's more attractive valuations elsewhere, he will dump his shares, as he should. It is his fudiciary responsibility to his fund's unit holders to make maximum profits. I don't know many people who plan on being in any O&G company

[Backinblack1000]

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[LiquidOctopusV2]

It really depends on certain factors.  If the oil price stays high O&G looks great.  With the right moves from management, I'm starting to agree with Nuttall's estimate of close to $15 for CPG.  But that could actually be higher if the buyback is aggressive, if the dividend is reasonable and generous.  Unless there is a oil price crash, I won't be reviewing my

[highalpha1]

@LiquidOctupusV2: When Nuttall gave the ~$C15 price target for CPG, he made two assumptions: 1) $80 WTI, and, 2) CPG trading at a multiple of 4.5x (as compared to today of just over 2.5x). I think that there is a lot more appreciation to come for CPG's stock price. If Q2 earnings show that the Duvernay assets are being integrated smoothly into the company's portfolio and that the output

[LiquidOctopusV2]

I rewatched that video, it looks likley that he was jumbling some of his numbers so we don't know what his price target was actually based on.  It's too bad.  As for me, I'm in this long term, and you need to understand contextually, my target price is contingent on a few things working out.  It depends on how rapidly these things we discuss take to materialize. 

[highalpha1]

@LiquidOctupusV2: You raise fair points. I agree with you that CPG has a lot higher to go from C$6. I am just way too concentrated in this stock and so I plan on selling 1/4 of my position. It will help me manage risk -- sell part of my position, while reeping the rewards of further upside moves.