Veren Inc T.VRN

Nuttall on CPG Aug 2015

[Dogsbreakfast4U]

I bought CPG for my RRSP after reading this on The Motley Fool.. That was a big mistake that I still own. If I held this in a non registered account I would sold a long time ago. I find it interesting that he is back in now. Live and learn. "On Tuesday, Sprott portfolio manager Eric Nuttall appeared onThe Business News Networkand outlined his top three picks in the energy sector. And Mr. Nuttall is worth paying attention toin the five years hes managed the Sprott Energy Fund, he has outperformed theS&P/TSX Capped Energy Indexby a total of 21.3 percentage points. Interestingly, the first company he mentioned wasCrescent Point Energy Corp.(TSX:CPG)(NYSE:CPG), a company he only started buying recently. So, why does Mr. Nuttall like Crescent Point so much? We take a look below. A cheap share price To put it bluntly, Crescent Points shares have been absolutely hammered recently. In the past three months alone, the stock price is down by well over 50%. Mr. Nuttall thinks this has made Crescent Point the most mispriced oil and gas stock that I can find. He says even the companys proved reserves are worth more than the companys market value. So, by buying the stock, you get part of the proved reserves, all the probable reserves, and all the other properties essentially for free. Crescent Point is also trading at its cheapest multiple ever, at just 5.5 times cash flow. At that price, Mr. Nuttall believes theres plenty of upside to justify the risk. A reformed company Crescent Point has received plenty of criticism in the past, and rightly so. The companys acquisition strategy, while ambitious, left the impression that management cared more about growth than shareholder value. These acquisitions were mainly funded by equity, thus diluting existing shareholders. Likewise, the companys dividend was also fairly ambitious, and was partly funded by issuing new shares through its dividend reinvestment program (DRIP). When putting the two together, Crescent Points share count took off, increasing by more than 100% over the past five years. But the company seems to have reformed its ways. The dividend has been slashed, and is now more sustainable. The DRIP has been eliminated. Management wants to internally fund acquisitions going forward. So, when taking a fresh look at Crescent Point, Mr. Nuttall sees a strong energy producer with a significantly depressed share price. A big caveat Mr. Nuttall believes that oil prices are unsustainable, and hes expecting a WTI price of US$55-60 next year. So, when he says that Crescent Point is undervalued and that it has a sustainable dividend, it is based on this big assumption. Midway through the interview, Mr. Nuttall was pressed on what the company is worth if oil stays at US$38, and he made a very insightful point: At $38 you dont buy an oil stock. So forget about if the dividend is sustainableis the company sustainable? And are any companies sustainable at $38? So that speaks to the lunacy of todays oil price. Mr. Nuttall was making an argument that oil prices must go up from here. But at the same time, he pointed out the big risk of investing in a company like Crescent Point. And lets face the facts: theres a very real chance that oil prices stay depressed for quite a while."

[highalpha1]

What I am taking away from this piece is that CPG was trading at 5.5x CF in 2015 at WTI of $38. Before 2015, CPG trading at a multiple as high as 8-9x CF. Today, with WTI priced at $70+, CPG is trading at 2.0x CF (as per RBC's recent report). If CPG were to return to 5.5x CF, the stock price for CPG would be C$15.50. I am not suggesting the CPG will return to a 5.5x CF multiple, but it shoud

[Mrlongpants]

I Ithink CPG should be trading at $15.50. I think all the analysts are unsure where CPG should  be trade. CNQ is trading  near is highs why sholdn't CPG Be trade at those multiples.Gltalongs

[highalpha1]

@Mrlongpants: A share price of C$15 is not out of the question for CPG. During his last appearance on BNN, Nuttall mentioned that should CPG trade at a 4.5x CF multiple under an $80 WTI scenario, CPG would be trading at C$14.70.

[Mrlongpants]

!00% agreement. Sorry about my english. I wrote my statement before without my glasses. We will see those numbers in the future at wti $80.00.GLTALongs. 

[LiquidOctopusV2]

For right now the market is still kind of wary of oil and gas.  And I think many people are still a bit confused as to how many decades energy transition will actually take.  If you listen to politicians and activists, it sounds like it happened yesterday instead of after 2050.  We're just at the very beginning of a multi-year bull run.  What does CPG look like after

[Backinblack1000]

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[highalpha1]

@LiquidOctupusV2: Yes, n  lot of retail investors and money managers remain wary of O&G companies, but the overall tone has been changing. Compared to the past 5 years, I have never seen so many commentators so bullish on energy prices (and, by extension, O&G stocks).  And the energy transition is many years away. CPG (using its current share price and current WTI price) can

[Backinblack1000]

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[Moemoney42]

[highalpha1]

@Moemoney42 (and anyone else who uses this board for the purposes it was intended): I think that I possess a fairly high threshold for stupidity before placing anyone on ignore, but since putting the following three usernames on block, this board has been much more palatable: Aboriginalgal Backinblack1000 iownbmw545

[Backinblack1000]

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[Moemoney42]

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