RE:Morgan StanleyI'd like to see if anyone has archived analyses from these guys from a few years back . " oil market in lower for longer mode indefinitely" " Oil will never see $ 100 ever again in our lifetime" Nuttall was the only one that consistently said the ESG tree huggers and woke governments would hike the price to $ 100 in no time and for years. I have to give it to him he nailed that one. Everyone else is a copy and paste talking head. I love the upgrades and downgrades too . " oh since it went down $2 today I'll lower my target by $3 . Useless buggers still have a job though.
retiredcf wrote: Morgan Stanley energy strategist Martijn Rats has a much more bullish view on the oil price than the Citi analyst I cited yesterday,
“Geopolitical risk related to the events in the Ukraine has introduced a premium in oil prices that will likely remain in coming months, which we had not incorporated so far. With that in mind, we increase our average 1Q forecast by $7.5/bbl to $95, and our 2Q forecast by $10/bbl to $110 in our base case scenario. Our bull case estimate for 2Q increases by $15 to $125/bbl… All the pipeline and tanker tracking data available to us suggests that, as of now, there is no noticeable disruption to the flow of oil from Russia… As previously highlighted, global oil inventories are already low and falling. Spare capacity is declining … small disruptions can still have large price impacts: As previously argued, we expect that oil prices eventually need to search for the level where at least some demand erosion kicks in. If there were to be an actual disruption to supply, the low price elasticity of oil demand means that this would probably cause a substantial price jump.”
“MS: “small disruptions can still have large price impacts [on crude]” – (research excerpt) Twitter