RE:RE:COMMON SENSE 1235Bickering with you too is boring. And neither is making much common sense. Try tackling these #s and thoughts ...
The issues IMO are supply and demand. Right now TWD has been granted a license to produce 15,000KG a year. Here is some napkin math
that is almost 500,000 oz for those thinking old school.
The mm users to date we have heard from HC are currently 40,000 and some are going to adopt to the new LPs and some will stay with the old producers at least until the courts figure out the challenges there.
Demand:
Lets assume optimistically that ALL the current mm users adopt an LP source and lets assume they ALL order 60g (2oz) a month.
The math says this:
40,000 x 12 months x 60g = 28,000kg a year.
Supply:
TWD has a License to produce 1/2 of the possible current annual demand - and they certainly have the capacity to grow that much and probably more with the greenhouse purchase.
So one LP has capacity for 1/2 the “market” and there are 12 other LPs while they all have much lower limits from HC, but together they all have been granted enough capacity in their licenses to more ore than meet demand as described above.
And we have 800 applicants at various stages of approval to be an LP.
Conclusion
Price of the products will come down. Margins will not remain at 70% and I would guess that they fall dramatically to the 20%, level at best.
Long shot.
Betting on a Trudeau majority in 2015 is a complete speculation. And even then it would be even a longer shot in his first action that he will pass legislation to rival Washington State and Colorado’s recreational laws.
Maybe 2017. By then there will be 100+ LP and the price will have dropped to $3/g.