TimMcCracken wrote: Starsearcher80 wrote: No Tim, I'm not. I shorted just as Corona was becoming an issue. Made some good money on paper on that, but the market is currently rallying on silly things like the Iowa Caucus screwup, Trump's State of the Union, Trump not getting removed, and Nancy throwing a hissy-fit. So the quick paper gains on the 700 point drop are now moot, and ever-so-slightly offside right now. I still think the whole market has lost its collective mind. Corona is getting worse, not better, and it's going to show up in the numbers going forward. I really haven't decided how long to hold the downside market bet.
So lets see. I'm off about 1% right now. WEED is off about 8.5% since I sold. I'm doing just fine Tim. Just fine thank you. ;)
TimMcCracken wrote: Starsearcher80 wrote: The stock is definitely starting to sell off, and it's worth starting to consider how far the drop will be.
There is some support around the $27.00 level, and the next support after that is at $24.00 I think there's a strong possibility the first level $27.00 will be challenged. The $24.00 level I would be suprised at this point. Note that these comments are PRE-quarterly movements of the stock. With the quarterly being such a wildcard, and the red flags that are there, all bets are off at that point as to where the stock will go. The market may be in the early stages of the process factoring in that downside risk now.
Are you the guy that went short the S&P 500 with double leverage on Friday afternoon at the lows? The S&P is up +3.54% since and thanks to your double leverage you are currently down -7.08%
Oh good for you. It is absolutely "stunning" how you always time the market perfectly.
Your headline reading is silly, is it at all possible the market is going up based on earnings? With some of the major S&P components posting blockbuster beats and impressive YoY earnings growth? Or is that just crazy to think the market would increase based on that.
$AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $JPM, $V, $FB, $MA to name a few.
Lucky for macro minded market longs the ten largest companies in the S&P 500 make up 24% and if you include the top 20 that's 34%. This means these big names have the ability to move the S&P higher on their own.
Analyst have S&P estimates at $180 which is about 18.33 forward times earnings.
Last time your macro worries had you double leveraged short was in the fall of 2017 when S&P hit 2500.
$180 in earnings means Fall 2017 S&P was bought for 13.88 times earnings. Excellent for longs.
With a rate cut expected this year, I see no reason for these companies to continue to outperform.
Any pull back and I am a buyer. My advice to you is to ignore the headlines and focus on the actual company. In the long run you will be better off.