RE:A SANDERS WIN, AND HOW THAT AFFECTS MJ STOCKS
Great comments from Starsearcher80. I clearly agree with you thoughts. 2020 is shaping up to be a major year for the marijuana industry. I predict Canopy growth price will shoot up above $70 by the week of November 4th to 10th. Once American makes it Federally legal then there is no stopping this rocket ship as the rest of the world jumps on board to legalize marijuana.... 2020 Christmas will be amazing for Canopy Growth share holders. A SANDERS WIN, AND HOW THAT AFFECTS MJ STOCKS As I'm sure everyone knows, (and in case you don't), Bernie Sanders has promised to legalize mj Federally in the first 100 days if elected. Now THAT would propel the stock into the stratosphere. There are two questions then: 1) At what point does it become evident that Sanders will be the Dem contender for the White House? 2) What are the probabilities of him winning? It is still very early in the Democratic caucuses, but if Sanders gets a clear victory in Nevada today, and then carries that momentum through to Super Tuesday and also wins there, I think he'll have a lock on the Dem Leadership. Right now it's still too early to say that, but it's certainly intriguing to watch this story develop. I would say a heavy dose of "so far so good" for him. So let's assume he IS the one, calling a big win on the Super Tuesday a lock on the leadership for him . Will that motivate mj stocks? Personally, I think it will, although not as dramatically as you might think. There will be some realigning and positioning to the mj stocks, as right now there is not a clear consensus for the winner. But put Sanders in the driver's seat and that will spark interest. But the real question is can he win. 3) Personally, I think the answer is yes, based on the following reasons: a) Trump's base is as locked in as ever, and always will be. But he has done damage to pockets of this base, which have become disenfranchised with him. When we see the base response at rallies, it looks as strong as ever. I don't think it is though, not from a pure headcount. b) I think in the last election, Trump's victory was more a result of Democratic voter complacency or downright apathy, wrongly thinking "well he could NEVER win. Based on this, the Democratic vote was not motivated to actually get out and vote, and of course they paid dearly for it, because the Trump base vote was highly motivated. c) This time WILL be diferent I think, with the highest voter turnout ever in the history of free elections. The Democratic vote will be HIGHLY motivated, (regardless who it is), and will win the Presidency. Trump's base will be as vocal as ever, but with the lack of increase in headcount, and the far more probable decrease, I think it will be a resounding loss for Trump. We're already seeing strong foreshadowing of this in some of the Governor's races, where clearly Red States went Blue. d) Trump is already trying to buy votes, touting a tax cut that the U.S. simply can't afford. That will sway some people I suppose, who only think about their own short term picture. But I think the collective loathing by Democratic voters will thwart any real impact here. So the MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION THEN is "When does the market truly factor in a Dem victory, and in particular a Sander's victory? Answer that question and you'll make a LOT of money. Typically the market is forward thinking 3 months ahead. I think there will be some rally as Sander's truly becomes the clear front-runner, but it may actually wait to the election to see the biggest boost happen on an actual Dem Victory. There is a wildcard here too. I think Sander's "first 100 days mj will be legal resonates with a LOT of voters. Could Trump steal his thunder announcing this himself? It's an outlying wildcard imho, but if Trump comes to recognize Sanders as the one he will face, then he will go after Sanders' platform. Now to attempt to combat Sanders first 100 days with "I'll never legaize" WON'T win Trump votes. So in the crazy world of politics, if this "first 100 days" message is resonating, and Trump/Republicans see that, Trump may just want to steal that thunder IN ADVANCE. Personally, this makes total political sense to me. Still a wildcard, but it is starting to come into focus. Just sitting on a flight coming back to the cold and had a minute to clarify these thoughts, if only for myself. It's still to early to be a stock motivating factor, but not too early to start wrapping your head around it, especially if Bernie wins. We'll see what comes.