Food For ThoughtThis was shared a while back and I will post it again, as I like the facts and comparisons. It's not my own creation and I will not take credit for it, but it has lots of realism. Enjoy
Just some food for thought
Phillip Morris a company with a 150 billion dollar market cap... 150 billion. Has an EPS of 4.18. They have 1.5 billion outstanding shares. Per quarter they are earning 1.56 billion.
If Canopy had a 150 billion dollar market cap their share price would be $937 per share fully diluted.
Now what are the chances Canopy makes 1.5 billion a quarter?
The Canadian medical market we know is on track to be 1.5 billion in the next 2 years. Canopy controls 40% of that currently.
600,000,000+
The recreational market is estimated at 5-7 billion and is also expect within 2 years. Canopy has said they want 40% of this market but let's give them 10%
600,000,000 + 700,000,000
The German market which is twice the size of Canada opens this year for all medical users and is expected to be covered by health insurance. A 3 billion dollar market. What percent will Canopy have?? Right now there's only a few distributers there I'd say they can capture 25% lIke they did early in the Canadian market .
600,000,000 + 700,000,000 + 750,000,000 = 2.050 billion revenue. This is the start and is calculated from numbers that will happen in 2 years time 3-4 for Germany .
30 % margin is 615 million. 3.84 EPS and a price per share of $96.
Giving Canopy a market cap of 15 billion and making them 10% the company of Phillip Morris to start.
Australia and other countries that open up excluded. Germany may take longer to reach 3 billion I think they'll have faster growth due to health insurance. Every rec user is going to be signing up there for free cannabis. Other than that these are the data points we have currently. It also shows that recreational isn't everything. 700 million rec compared to 1.4 billion medical in the next few years. We'll also see medical open up first in new countries. I'm placing my bets on medical for my investment recreational is icing on the cake. They need to Grow and grow fast.
Phillip Morris EPS: A current EPS for fiscal year is observed at $4.18