Bank of America report BofA Report- Canada Covid Reopening
Cannabis retail license tracker: license
count continues to ramp
Industry Overview
Canada cannabis store license tracker
Retail stores are a key driver of the Canadian cannabis market’s growth. We use
activated retail licenses as a proxy for store openings, but note that in recent quarters,
COVID-related lockdowns have delayed some stores from openings. As lock-downs end,
we expect an acceleration in Canadian cannabis sales, boosted by a surge in new
licenses in Ontario, improved store traffic and mix shift away from value products. Even
with many new licensees being allocated, we think the Canadian market still has
capacity.
1,099 licenses granted year-to-date in Canada
According to Cannabiz Media, Canada’s authorized cannabis dispensary licenses reached
2,453 in June 2021, or +212 m/m. This compares to 991 in June 2020. So far in 2021,
monthly license authorizations have averaged +183 with Ontario issuing 121 licenses
per month on average. June licenses issued included +143 in Ontario, +37 in Alberta, +16
in Manitoba, +9 in Saskatchewan, +3 in Quebec, +3 in British Columbia, and +1 in Nova
Scotia. Year to date, 1,099 new licenses have been authorized (+81% from year-end
2020), including +723 in Ontario, +157 in Alberta, +93 in British Columbia, and +49 in
Manitoba. Store openings should track with licenses issued, but we surmise some stores
licensed in 2021 have not opened yet due to COVID lockdowns.
We expect demand to surge in 2H21
Prolonged COVID shutdowns in Canada, especially Ontario, have delayed store opening
and curbed traffic. We expect newly licensed stores to open as shutdowns wane, and
sell-in to provincial wholesalers to improve with a few weeks lag. On June 30th, Ontario
entered Phase 2 of its re-opening strategy, which allowed non-essential retailers to open
at 25% capacity. On July 16th, Ontario plans to enter Phase 3, which will enable
dispensaries to open without capacity constraints. We anticipate industry sales pressure
in C2Q due to COVID shutdowns, but expect a recovery in C2H21 as lockdowns end and
newly licensed stores open.
April retail sales in Canada +4% m/m
Statistics Canada has released April cannabis retail sales, excluding Yukon and Prince
Edward Island (PEI). Excluding Yuko and PEI, April sales rose 4% m/m and 73% y/y. This
compares to a 2% q/q and 73% y/y increase in C1Q. In C1Q, Tilray’s adult-use sales were
(23)% q/q and (7)% y/y, Aurora’s were (36)% q/q and (52)% y/y, and Canopy’s (B2B) were
+3% q/q and +66% y/y. (Growth rates reflect Aurora and Canopy before excise taxes;
Tilray is net of excise taxes). We attribute the delta between the Canadian operators’
and total Canada retail sales largely to provincial wholesaler destockings, and share
shifts to a lesser extent.