Have an $8.00 Target. GLTA
HIGHLIGHTS FROM INVESTOR MEETINGS: LOOKING TO BE MORE CANADIAN
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Earlier this week, we hosted investor meetings with CEO Hamed Shahbazi. WELL is our top pick. We believe it has a lucrative long-term growth opportunity ahead, as it further consolidates the very fragmented Canadian clinic market. The potential sale of some/all of its U.S. businesses are key catalysts. We think the post-Q4 sell-off is unwarranted and has created a compelling buying opportunity.
Impact: NEUTRAL
Strong tailwinds in Canada. We believe WELL is ideally positioned to continue capitalizing on its dominant leadership position in the highly fragmented Canadian clinic market (<1% market share). Numerous factors including chronic doctor shortages and burnout is allowing WELL to "absorb" more clinics for nominal consideration, with ~20 of the ~50 opportunities in its M&A pipeline being clinic absorption candidates. WELL is facing limited competition for these clinics, as we think its scale, clinic transformation expertise, and unrivaled tech- enabled suite of clinic software/services give it a significant competitive advantage.
Also, reimbursement rates continue to rise in Canada, in some cases significantly (i.e., well above inflation), as governments look to address the large (family) doctor shortage. The expected ~20% boost to reimbursement rates in Manitoba is making WELL's recent absorption of the Manitoba Clinic even more attractive.
U.S. businesses for sale at the right price. We believe inbound interest in Wisp may have spurred the current sale/monetization processes for Wisp and Circle. We think the sale of Circle and/or Wisp could net WELL ~$95mm-$235mm, which would be used to buyback stock and repay debt.
Given the very attractive dynamics in the Canadian market, where WELL is focusing its capital deployment, and management's view that the market is undervaluing its U.S. businesses (which we agree), we believe WELL may sell some or all of its U.S. businesses, including CRH. We believe WELL becoming a Canadian healthcare pure-play would dramatically simplify the story, increase investor interest, and drive a positive re-rating.
Margins set to rebound. Mr. Shahbazi reiterated that margins should begin rebounding in Q2/F24, aided by benefits from its enterprise-wide cost optimization initiative that is generating millions of dollars in annual savings, and clinic transformation work at the MCI clinics and Manitoba Clinic.
Hidden value...HEALWELL investment is worth >$90mm (>10% of WELL's market cap). We believe investors are overlooking WELL's HEALWELL investment. Netting off its HEALWELL investment would reduce WELL's EV/EBITDA multiple by >0.5x.