IMONothing is happening here until the LATER of: final permitting guidelines are issued, or end of November. If Rio/MMC were working to lock up Casino right now, Rio wouldn't have bothered re-upping, right? There'd be little reason to.
Keeping their percentage share is nice, that it took the entire 10 business days to "decide" whether to send over $2m tells me they'll take every minute allowed on "deciding" whether to commit to becoming all or majority owner. Keep that in mind, whoever is out there wishing FCX or BHP gets their 2.5 year test run.