Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

Q1: Is Moly removed from NPV

[stockcopper]

Hi all 

 

I've been following and reading posts on here for the last few months, 

I am a holder of WRN. I like the stock and I think it has major potential.

 

I have a number of questions, if anyone can help please do. 

 

Q1: Is Moly excluded from NPV(8%) and if so why?

You will see on slide 15 (WRN_Corporate_Presentation_Jan_2023.pdf)

the value for NPV 8% is given at $2.33 billion CAD. 

You can see this figure is taken from the maxtrix on slide 19. 

However, for some reason, they use prices for copper @ US$ 3.60

and GOLD @ US$ 1,700 which intersects @ $2,334 CAD. 

This matrix is taken from (M3-PN200352-Casino-Feasibility-Study-NI-43-101-Technical-Report_compressed.pdf)

Note: for some reason they decided to go for this intersection, despite the fact that it is not 

aligned with the base case long term price assumption.

 

Actual long term prices (base case) in $US at an exchange rate of 0.746

Copper $4.50 or approx $3.36 US

Molybdenum $17.50 = $13.05 US

Gold $2,125.00 = $1,585 US

Silver $27.50 = $20.5 US

 

At the end of the Table 22-4: Metal Price Sensitivity, page 332.

Moly is adding ($2,166 M CAD) @ US 12 - I know Moly is currently trading a lot higher but in this case, I want to stick to the 

long term price assumptions in the report.

So why is this removed fom slide 19 in (WRN_Corporate_Presentation_Jan_2023.pdf) ?

 

is it not logical that the NPV(8%) should actually be 

(GOLD+COPPPER) $1,831 CAD $M PLUS $2,166 CAD $M which give a total

of $ 3,997 CAD $M

 

So why do they say the NPV(8%) is  $2.33 billion CAD, that seems like half.

even taking these very low long term assumptions?

 

===============

[Sooner]

Stock copper - did you read previous posts from me on moly? Yes, I recently asked Sandy/Paul on why we don't provide sensitivity taking into moly but only gold and copper. Answer I got is because gold and copper are what people interested in ..and also indicated large volatility on moly. however, current moly price is a huge driver in any NPV calc. I think I did the NPV math for your review in

[stockcopper]

Hi Sooner I did read your previous posts on Moly, however to be clear, I am saying that moly is not included at all in NPV. I get your point that spot moly vs the long term base case is a justifiable argument for a higher price. On slide x (M3-PN200352-Casino-Feasibility-Study-NI-43-101-Technical-Report_compressed) 1.1 KEY DATA Molybdenum – 346 million pounds Moly 346 M lbs * $13 USD /lbs

[Oakie1]

Stockcopper and Sooner, I, too, have studied the moly situation, and think I have the answer to the "missing" moly in the NPV. With mining stocks and certain other industries that have co-products and/or by-products produced also, the terminology of "co-products" and "by-products" is important. With WRN, the co-products are Cu and Au, and the by-products are Ag and

[stockcopper]

Oakie 1 That's an excellent answer, I will look into this in more detail but your logic sounds right.  Thank you very much

[Marine2]

Oakie 1 All I know, with Rio running all their metrics valuating Casino Moly @ $33.39 will be factored in. We know the new prices of Moly will reduce the cost of mining the copper !  Copper costs will be minus $1.20 LBS as to .60 LBS  with new value for moly for example. What will Rio offer,, what are other mining companies thinking Casino is worth ? Next week we could get an offer

[CopperAndGold14]

Oakie, this is a very helpful explanation, thank you!

[MetalMinded]

Rio is an iron ore miner.  They very well know the value of the moly in the ground for steel production.  

[Oakie1]

Metal, You are exactly right. I'm not concerned that RIO may not know the true value of moly - it's WRN I'm concerned about - I hope they know. The US government has finally come to realize how vulnerable the US has become with rare earth and strategic minerals. China controls the majority of rare earth minerals (having many uses that have to do with our national security). The

[EvenSteven27]

WRN knows. I talked to Paul about Moly a few weeks back. He clearly knows. Why the company isn't pushing Moly more? Heaven knows. Maybe there is some method to the madness. let's wait and see.