Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

For those who have bandied about % premiums in a buyout....

[Heywood_Silvers]

MTU was taken out today for a 100% premium.  And here's the kicker, the buyout price was still way too low despite the large premium.

WRN's price after RIO buy-in moved up to $2.83 USD, doubling that is $5.66 a share or in the vicinity of Mr. Sooner's preferred $6 price target.  I'm not advocating that his target is correct, other than to say that it realisitcally is a worst-case scenario floor.

Anyone talking about (or even wanting) a price sub $6 needs to research the phrase "excessive pessimism".

[MetalMinded]

Paul gave us two bookends before.  $2B would be a stretch  and $1B would be a great deal for the buyer.  That was before FS and with much lower commodity prices.  Yes I hope for higher but Sooner's $6 puts us right around $1.5B which ironically would about 50% NPV at $4.00 Copper and $1800 Gold and ignoring any impact Molly might have.  I personally hope for $2.5B but

[Sooner]

My $6 usd target has always been predicated on about 50% NPV of FS...or about $900M usd  Any upside on metal prices would be realized by the buyer !!! and would be used to offset their complaints about capex, volatility in metal prices, permitting, etc, etc, etc. I still think that's reasonable....but continuing to see other transactions at below 50% NPV and not what seems like many

[Heywood_Silvers]

There are 140 million non-RIO shares outstanding.  $1 billion USD would equate to about $7 USD.  So if Paul was insinuating that as a worst case scenario, we are already past the Sooner target. At 2.5 billion (2 billion USD?) that puts a buyout per share at about $14 USD.  So, you think splitting the middle at $10 is most logical?  Could very well happen. At any rate, I know

[Sooner]

Don't count on it...eventually if Rio gets tired of Paul not being reasonable on what their offer is vs our current market cap is...Rio will go public directly to shareholders. Your assumption that WRN bod is all powerful and able to just keep any offers from Rio to themselves is likely naive... look at other examples of this recently. 

[jclarke042]

MTU acquired at a 60% discount to its 3 year high. Can't just twiddle your thumbs hoping for sky high metals prices. When Cu was 2.50 we said Just Wait For $4.50. Didn't happen. We gotta strike while the iron is still (sort of, I hope) hot.

[Heywood_Silvers]

I can't agree Clarke, I'm involved in three buyouts this month (ATC, SBB, MTU) and I'm taking small paper losses on all of them.  Are you catching a theme here? The theme is that the majors are NOW starting to poach whilst the juniors are at their weakest.  Now is the worst time for a buyout (unless we get that vaunted bidding war going). If you are a majors investor, this