RE:RE:RE:RE:A trend I am seeing that will increase I call bullsh#t.
Kavern at least 98.74359 of your statistics are made up on the spot. I liked listening to your comments on ygr, obe and even bne when u hated it. When did this turn into the Kavern oil and gas is doomed here are a bunch of random numbers blog?
the transmountain pipeline was delayed for the same reason it was delayed in the 1950's when it was also nationalized and built by the federal government at that time. Poor leadership and toxic politics. Politicians never give a cr@p about the people who don't vote for them.
we will be building more gas power plants in Alberta It is one of the reasons why the carbon hubs are under development. CCS baby.
it is hard to bring on production quickly because capacity is hard to grow across the whole spectrum not just drilling. Steel shortages, sand shortages, staffing, pipelines, facilities, VLCC tankers you name it.
LNG capacity continues to expand. Brownfield expansions are faster than greenfield and more are coming this year. Direct pipelines to Mexico take another 6-7 billion feet a day and its growing. The Americans also have a lot more coal to replace. Gas producers might want to increase production but market access is still a chore outside of Texas and the gulf.
we are short gas in Alberta right now but it has always been a bet on the weather. Who knows what the long term price will be, currently it's excellent. The biggest positive though is that we shouldn't have any more of the Transcanada bullshit during the summer that caused it to drop so hard. We had terrible summer prices for 3 years due to bad regulation during their Nova expansion project. That looks to be behind us. The Nova and enbridge expansions have also added new markets.
Consolidation has meant tighter capital spending and a tighter local market because they have at least a little pricing power now. Tourmaline even contracted 150 million cf/d to a texas LNG facility that bypasses the local market completely little moves like this show market discipline.
local usage has grown dramatically and will continue to do so. Not just coal replacement (although Saskatchewan still generates 40% of their electricity from coal too). Population growth and We have more industrial use coming. Heartland has two big chem plants that need liquids for product and nat gas for ops. Propane export plants are also running flat out in Rupert keeping liquids prices up. There is still a massive condy shortage here.
another dow ethane plant is probably coming too. Ygr can stop selling it for heat value then. The power plants will replace it with methane.
Permian growth? It just doesn't matter. All of this massive growth you see coming is market noise being offset by the 2/3 of opec producers who cant meet their quotas right now. Kazakhstan and Libya lost more production in the past two months than the US will grow production over this year.
Russia has just started feeling the effects of boycotts. That will get a lot worse for them.
there are record prices across all of the energy spectrum. Gas, oil, fuel, uranium and renewables. Even corn is back to a 12 year high.
The biggest risk is probably that interest rates continue to spike higher and cause a recession and we are just not there yet. There in no political risk premium in prices right NOW. Valuations are still discounting much lower prices.
I would rather discuss the companies than all of the big picture cr@p that the market already discounts but really I expect the last 3 quarters of the year to be even better anyway.