RE:OPEC predictions On this issue I think we are back to the 1970's. Stupid energy politics all over the place with bizarre economic effects - now its climate change but the results are the same. Iraq has been saying the same thing for ten years.
OPEC is producing way under quota because half of their members are in terminal decline. It has always been bizarre that two of the most populous countries in the world rely on oil exports for foreign exchange in Nigeria and Indonesia. That won't continue. What other populous country relied on oil exports for most of their foreign exchange in the 1980's - you guessed it, China.
I don't think OPEC breaks up, I think they get stronger. But ALL of the power shifts to the Middle East. The gunboats in the area? They will be Chinese and Indian eventually. Dictators will dictate.
Terminal decline for oil usage is a long way down the road still. Dramatic increases in consumption still is occurring in Asia, Africa and Middle East.
I can see decades of growth in nat gas production but it is still getting harder and more expensive to find and develop new oil fields. Apart from short term blips. American decline rates are so severe, they are an oil recession away from dropping 1 million boe/pd in a year. Innovation will continue to impact but just to moderate declines. The Permian will rollover soon. Like the Bakken and Eagleford before.
so declining production in most developed country basins : North sea excluding Norway falling off a cliff due to incompetent governments and its a mature basin. Most of Africa, particularly Angola and Nigeria dropping production. Most of Asia is flat or declining, most of Latin America shooting themselves in the face with politics. Mexico will be a net importer. Maybe one day Gawar falls off a cliff like Canterell in Mexico already has.
new oil frontiers expanding in Guyana, Brazil and next decade Namibia. Expanded production from Iran, UAE, Iraq and one day Venezuela. Incrementally in Canada. It is a wash for at least 10 years.