RE:2024I was reading some commentary on X (twitter) about YGRs 2023 drilling, The poster was "WTIRealist".
Essentially, he was claiming the 2023 drilling program was a disaster, extremely low producing and fast declining wells, especially in H2.
Remember, YGR claimed 14k BOE exit and then removed it from the presentations. They missed more moderate production estimates by the street (12,500).
He said YGR needed 4200 BOE from capital program to keep production flat but only added 1700 BOE.
The other claim was that the reserves are vastly overstated and that is why it trades a fraction of NAV/book.
Basically, YGRs inventory sucks and well economics are poorer than ever, spending a lot to produce a little. I've stuck with this company for a long time, but the claims ring true and show in the financials. 4.7M in free cashflow, less than 10% of the 2022 amount. I know prices were lower in 2023, but they were not terrible. The only reason they got debt down is due to the equity raise.
To make matters worse, gas prices have collapsed as everyone knows. AECO futures from now until next fall are around $1.50. Even next winter, $3 is about as good as it gets. It could be years before we're back to $4-5.
I think cap-ex was slashed for 2024 not only due to low gas prices, but out of desperation because they cannot continue to spend with drilling results like this, they'll financially implode.