Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

National Bank has this as the cheapest junior they cover

[TheRexmember]

Trading at 1.1 X next years cash flow.

the average of the group is over 2.0 

both numbers are based on an assumption that oil prices will drop 20 dollars. 

Still stupidly cheap

[EntngledOutlier]

They also have a target price of 2.50, which makes zero sense to me.

[forwardflash]

Could be they think oil prices will fall due to a coming recession.  One of the major financial houses don't remember which one, predicts oil by the end of the year will be 79 bucks.  If so that changes everything.   

[ppp]

Aeco prices impact this company the most. The forward curve is over 5 dollars. This means for the next 12 months they are making excellent returns on their NG.  Should be able to bring debt down to 150 mil no problem. And oil at 80 is a very good number so this company is worth 3.50 no problem and NB is more than likely the short. 

[forwardflash]

Good points.  What's their Ng to oil ratio?

[ppp]

Q4 production 10,060 bbls Oil 2744 NGL 1687 NG 5629

[forwardflash]

tks

[EntngledOutlier]

They do have a projected oil price of $85. However, out of all the oil and gas stocks they recently covered, only YGR has a lower target price than what it is trading at.

[pennydredful]

misinformation  from  a  troll.

[pennydredful]

nice    move   thru   the  key   3.00   price    this morning   .  Will   be  marginable   above   the   3.00  level. 

[masfortuna]

No.  Which financial house. Paste the  info.

[forwardflash]

Goldman Sachs Just SOLD Billions in Stocks… *AGAIN* - YouTube

[pennydredful]

Hey   Troll   .  Goldman   Sachs    sell   and   BUY    Billions of  Stocks everyday  !

[forwardflash]

Maybe so, but someone asked for my source. so there it is.  And EVERY T ME gas prices spiked like this a recession follows and crude prices fall.. The consumer is being ate alive by rising costs of everything, Food inflation hasn't even started yet.  But I'm thinkng since the US is now an exporter of NG, with more LNG plants approved but yet to be built Ng is the play.  FWIW

[cfliesser]

Of course. The chance of a recession is high, and this is baked into the SP. If there was no chance YGR would be trading much higher right now. But even it it does happen, we will still all make a lot of money in the short term.

[forwardflash]

That's the reason I'm looking at this one, it looks promising.   Wish I could have caught it earlier, don't we all LOL. Got one that I'm in early, eighty percent Ng, helium, 20% Light oil.  Guess I'll stick with that one. Tks to the posters for their help.  I've got this one on my watch list.  Good investing!

[masfortuna]

??? I asked you for the souce info on National Bank that you posted. 

[kavern23]

A recession isnt going to kill Natural Gas prices as oversupply of natural gas will first. Going to get ugly on the oversupply this NG price bubble is creating. Companies stopped drilling so hard for NG in 2021 as NG was like 2.50 range right now... USA production of NG is rising rapidly and also in Canada. 95 BCF a day in the USA on the weekend.  Last year was like 90. Double the rigs

[ppp]

A chart for you guys.  https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9133us2m.htm

[forwardflash]

Nice chart!  Rest my case.

[kavern23]

PPP...convert that to BCF a day..... I have seen USA in 2022 at daily records of 13.2 BCF a day exported through LNG. I used too see it prior years at as high as 7-8 bcf a day on record days and some days 4 BCF. Companies need time to adjust too higher prices but they can easily produce and close what is exported.

[gilllis]

time to get out of your cavern and realize that natgas is and will stay strong. Maybe a pull back of 10-20% will come sooner than later but price will go back hard to 8$ by october. You forget that the US has committed to supply natgas to Europe for the next 10 years at least in replacement of Russian gas. This is a game changer. No more cheap natgas and this is why energy companies are going up

[kavern23]

bro...do you realize why Europe has pushed climate change agendas the hardest? lol it's because they don't consume much ng and oil compared to other markets. only Germany is a top ten of coutries of ng consumption for Europe and it is 8th place. Canada consumes more ng then Germany like almost double lol. I am woken up. russia exports 13 Bcf a day to Europe. Not high man. They

[gilllis]

Europeans cant come up with the decision on letting go Russian gas. Clearly, they dont get your logic. 

[kavern23]

it's because Europe doesn't have near enough  lng terminals to get the ng... Asia is still the lng king....top countries getting lng are all in Asia..... Japan, China, South Korea, India etc....much more massive then Europe countries like Spain.    

[gilllis]

‘Too Many Constraints’ to Rapidly Boost Lower 48 Oil, Natural Gas Production, Experts Say - Natural Gas Intelligence

[kavern23]

Lol of course Wall Street analysts say that...they are bigger gainers from a bubble spike. I run the minute see Wall Street analysts. Notice companies like Peyto  have 5 rigs working through spring break up....they know know once in life time opportunity... Service companies wouldn't be doing abandonment work if things were so hot   

[kavern23]

What we need too see to be excited about ng long term prospects is major North American fields being depleted...that is what will keep ng at 5-6 dollars sustainable. as long as Montney...Permian...and marcell. Are nowhere close to being drilled oversupply will always cap things on ng. go to northern Alberta...gas plant capacity and pipe will be issue not labour or rig or pipe.  

[gilllis]

hope you piled up on HND. Money's coming.... 

[kavern23]

I can't yet...I would gladly throw 100k on a short.  I took insane risks in 2021...middle aged and don't give two sh*ts anymore. That's why NG is crazy right now..Wall Street knows none of us can short easily when a potential Russia ban lingers. One sided bull trade and Wall Street is taking advantage, Plus I would rather short after May 15th.

[Oilpig1]

There is some resistance from 2006 levels. Air conditioning season creates more demand for natural gas than heating season. First southern heatwave is all we are waiting for. When I look at natural gas weekly chart. No way I would short right now. It may consolidate between here and 7.24, but the run isn't over yet. Follow the trend.

[Oilpig1]

Natural gas is currently contango, this is very bullish.

[kavern23]

oilpig.....air conditioning season never creates more demand then heating season. Possible too see some weeks during peak ac season that have some 60-80 draws but heating season sees the big 200 bcf plus week draws. blackouts happen in peak ac season as not enough ng plants built. one of these years solar capacity will get large enough too chip into ng ac demand. quote=Oilpig1]There is

[cfliesser]

The way I see it trying to predict Nat gas prices is a folly. Historically has been very challenging. My thesis for oil and gas industry: 1) companies priced at 2-3 times earnings. So only 2-3 years of prices matter. 2) YGR can do just fine with oil where it is. 3) Nat gas is a bonus but they should hedge, it can go down just as fast as it went up, but obviously if it stays up that's great.

[ppp]

We forecast that U.S. natural gas marketed production will increase to an average of 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022 and then further increase to a record-high 106.6 Bcf/d in 2023, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Around 97% of production over the next two years will come from the Lower 48 states (L48), excluding the Federal Offshore

[kavern23]

I thought USA deal was 50 billion cubic metres a year...not sure what that is in BCF...

[ppp]

Sorry that should read 50 billion a month. My point is all the production increases will be taken up by exports. 

[ppp]

U.S. LNG exports decrease by four vessels this week from last week.Twenty LNG vessels (six from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi; three from Freeport; two from Calcasieu Pass; and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 75 Bcf departed the United States between April 7 and April 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P. Bad

[kavern23]

Yeah the makes sense.  USA MAX LNG capability is like 13.2 BCF a day and 89 BCF in a week is 12.71 BCF a day. Biggest issue is USA can't go above 13.2 BCF. Temp thing and supply will catch up. Companies didnt drill hard in 2020 and first six months for NG in 2021 as alot of the LNG happened around August and Sept of 2021. I remember days when USA used to produce under 80 BCF a day

[forwardflash]

What you left out is, no one wants to be dependent on Russian Ng, in fact many countries are banning its imports, are getting away from it as fast as they can, by switching to imported LNG.  The US has been steadly increasing its LNG export facilities, many are built many approved but not yet constructed.  NG feedstock is used to make fertilizer a very, very  big thing, since Russia

[forwardflash]

Russia may not supply as much fertilzier as I posted, but it still is very significan't

[kavern23]

Countries have needed time....lots can increase NG if they have LNG trains available. Norway, Qatar, Algeria, etc... Once those countries open more LNG plants...be more competition for USA lng. NG isnt rare for countries that have it. Getting it too Europe is the issue.