Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

september production results

[Helloworld]

Cliff or Kav. Curious if these are out yet.

[kavern23]

Not yet, but it should be soon. Usualy within  2 days of Gear issuing their monthly report.  By Friday of this week.

[cfliesser]

FYI it is always in the last calendar week of the month. So not expected till sometime next week.

[fullyautomatic]

Latest drills appear to be spread further and going longer- should be interesting. All 14 should be on in WF plus a couple in twp 37-8. Market is sleeping here.. and that's ok for now. GL

[kavern23]

Did you notice YGR last six licenses fully from sept 28th?  Looks like plan is to do 6 shorter 1 mile wells in a fan shape basically around those 3 boomers from August...really oily.  I think really smart. Low capital costs and seems to be an oil pocket there.  Excited to see how those three boomers from August did in Sept.

[fullyautomatic]

Yeah man- I noticed the location, didn't know the length, but the boomers are short fan shape in right in that area. Nice to see they are trying to tweak the approach. Did you see those NBF slides projecting capex at $60M for 2023- gotta be wrong isn't it? 

[kavern23]

I didn't see slides but ironically going down to 60m capex was what I was thinking the last time I was analyzing things and thinking about impacts of those gushers, have more options now. I hope it is true and it could be. I think YGR is going to try as hard as possible to finish year end debt as close to 125M as possible. Probably through lower capex plus higher fcf in q3 and q4. So by

[kavern23]

Plus what will bank debt interest rates be corparately for 2023 with the insantity of the canada central bank. 7 or 8 percent maybe more. We all have to pay for justin trudeau debt binge. [/quote]

[fullyautomatic]

If 60M is true it really is a major change in mindset. I have to think about it a bit more, so used to running full tilt. My first impression is I'd rather be 16k and spend what it takes to run the 1 rig 365. Seems weak throttling back.....  kavern23 wrote:I didn't see slides but ironically going down to 60m capex was what I was thinking the last time I was analyzing things and

[cfliesser]

If they only spend 60M they will be debt free much sooner than end of 2023. I think they can easily repay similar debt to last Q, $23M, each quarter (on avg for next year) from now on as long as commodities stay around where they are now. *I think this is conservative since prices will be higher early next year... $155M / $23 = 6.7 quarters. So this already takes us to end of 2023 debt free

[cfliesser]

BUT I think this whole exercise in going debt free is all theoretical. I do not think, and do not hope that they ever go completely debt free. The goal shoudl be to get debt to a point where is doesn't matter. Then return capital to shareholders. I think once debt reaches 0.5-1.0xFCF there is no point in reducing more. So that would be $50M to $100M, probably on the lower end of that. That

[fullyautomatic]

Yes Cliff. I think we agree on these points. A few things that scare me: 1.Somehow capex is actually 60M-- BUT the other 40M is spent on an acquisition... NO... That's a line in the sand for me. I sell. I don't even really want to think what would happen to the SP if they did this. I think it would be crushed 2. Somehow capex is actually 60M-- AND the market flips to rewarding growth

[pennydredful]

It   may be more favourable to management  to  do buy backs  rather  than dividends  as  dividends water   down   the   options   they   hold while  buy backs do not.