Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Still no…

[kavern23]

Still no 2024 guidance from a lot of these companies ipo, Ygr and Petrus.
ng piece fundamentals only got worse during Xmas break. I am a bit surprised Ygr is holding 1.30 or ipo is over 2.20 or Pne is over 1.35.

things may hold in these trading ranges for majority of these juniors or smaller Canadian energy companies until q4 results will sink a lot of these stocks unfortunately 10-20 percent down.

aeco ng price curve is just so brutal right now. Even 2025 prices are starting to drop.

companies are going to start have to hedge 2026 volumes now on ng. 

Just so warm everywhere, Europe had a small injection instead of a seasonal draw, very weak ng demand in Europe right now with warm temps.

[pennydredful]

Another negative point   Cdn. $$   has  strengthened  somewhat   defying  its   usual  pattern of being weak  when  energy  prices  are  weak. 

[kavern23]

Penny, I am interested to get more details on what happened with razor energy...key detail being what was razor being charged in processing fees at that Judy creek gas plant. Is more of this coming in the next 3 months. With 1.79 December average aeco price....processing fees are going to be so important for whole industry. If these prices hold it will push some of the higher costing wells in

[pennydredful]

so what you  are  saying  those  less reliant  on  3rd  party  processing  will be more  favourably disposed  .  In  razor,s   case  they  were  likely  a slow  payer  so  likely  got  pushed out  as  stronger companies  that  will  pay  on time 

[kavern23]

Margins have to be quite thin for most companies at 1.80 aeco that need processing charge. The bigger and stronger players can handle losses on ng side and wait out the storm. Dry Montey drilling should pull back. Be amazing if it doesn't.

[kavern23]

Penny I think junior energy stock prices are similar to Canadian housing market in one aspect...people don't want to sell their homes at a loss so that is keeping prices higher for now...same with a lot of these energy stocks, isn't sellers yet. Baffles my mind why so many companies used up cash in 2023 on share buybacks when they could have just waited for now or early 2024 to do the

[pennydredful]

with   Razor  up  today  and  Journey   down   , both   being  AIM  clients   and    the type   of   stuff  JOY   likes    ,  I   am   wondering  if   some    deal  is in the works ??

[CandyC]

I'm expecting Razor to be bought out sometime in  H1

[pennydredful]

Candy  Kisses  wrapped  in paper me more to you than any  of mind  ---------------written   and  performed   by    George  Morgan   circa   1949    .    His   daughter   Laurie    went   on to become  a C &W   singing   star.&

[pennydredful]

Seems  like  a Mexican standoff with  no  near term resolution expected.  This  plant is old and has changed  hands  frequently. Some problems could be  each  new  owner   wants to  extract a new pound  of flesh and  all arrears  paid up  as well  as  loose  operating  and accounting

[Hendrick3]

At some point and we may be there already,  YGR becomes an option on natural gas. At this stock price it would be correctly priced on a fundamental basis if it produced $30 million in FFO in 2024. It should do much better than that but 4-5 times FFO is still a very good price multiple. I believe that is why it seems to be holding. IPO is holding based on their dividend. 

[cfliesser]

I'm confused at this statement. They FFO 30M per quarter not per year.  So multiple closer to 1.

[Helloworld]

Problem is not FFO.  Problem is FCF.  Over the past 3 years they have spent more on capital than entire EV keeping a rig active l.  Would not be a problem if the well results were good but on average they have been awful and oil production today is lower than 3 years ago.  -54% on the year.. wonder how many shares they gift themselves this year.

[Hendrick3]

I was just illustrating that their FFO could greatly diminish and they would be still be undervalued.