Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Exit production rate

[Hendrick3]

The absence of a press release suggests to me that YGR did not hit their optimistic exit rate of14,000 boe/ day. I am sure that is not a surprise to anyone here

[kavern23]

YGR, IPO and Petrus seem to be all very quiet. Petrus said still working on 2024 budget in last update this week. imo this points to some tough decisions being discussed. If commodity prices were robust I think they all relese in fall like they normally do. Still only Janaury 5th...but no Bonterra or Inplay rig working yet. Something to watch as companies have to drill in Cardium...all of them

[cfliesser]

Well... You can... You just have decline.  It's a trade-off. But what if you can make your market cap in FCF by not drilling for a year or 2. You won't have much production at the end but you'll have the cash... 

[kavern23]

I agree with you Cliff but what publicly traded company is willing to take the risk of doing that? Even if in some scenarios the FCF is higher by lower drilling plan....hard to still drop yearly production as you can get a retail sell offf. Which is why if low comoddity prices presist in 2024...another scenario for some companies is too "go private" option. Private companies dont have

[cfliesser]

Oh for sure they won't do it.  But always an option. 

[Hendrick3]

Going private not an easy option. You have to make an offer  to public shareholders at fair market value. They will look at reserves report and other fundamentals both of which suggest a much higher price for YGR. Even with natural gas weakness PDP reserves going to be over $3 per share NAV. Industry standard is about 125% of pdp reserves for market value. They have these laws to protect

[fullyautomatic]

? It's as easy as finding private money and offering $2/sh. Assuming it's management's group that is buying. Probably wouldn't even need to offer a full $2 at this rate.. It's not any different from CNRL literally stealing Storm and Pony.  Salt in the wound is seeing CNRL hitting top condy wells in Fireweed.( former Storm lands) 

[Hendrick3]

Ygr management is not going to accept $2 and they gave a very large shareholding. 

[fullyautomatic]

If they were buying it wouldn't matter the price. Since they would still have the same or better equity position. In fact lower the better for them..

[Hendrick3]

The subject I was responding to was taking the company private which requires a bid to all shareholders by a party who intends to take the company private. If the bid is from outside, it must be substantial enough to attract shareholders to give up their shares. With around 20% insider shareholders, that group would need to be onside for the deal to go through. That wouldn't happen anywhere

[fullyautomatic]

I agree completely with what you are saying as that is how the rules are written. All I'm trying to say is that there is more than 1 way to skin a cat. Fair is fair but since when is life fair? I guess you can say that I am a bit more of a cynic, in the sense that you and I are in the same boat whereas the insiders are in a different ship all together! Have a pleasant weekend, getting colder

[Hendrick3]

If management and insiders are doing the buying then they have to get a fair value opinion under securities rules. With ygr fundamentals so strong relative to the share price, I cannot see the fair value opinion coming in under $3.00. They currently trade at just above 1x FFO, 3x earnings and 35% of PDP NAV. The sector trades at 3-5 times FFO, 10 times earnings and 125% of pdp NAV reserves. Should